Risk-Based Design of Large-Scale Flood Defence Systems

Voortman, H. G.

doi:10.1142/9789812791306_0199

Cited by 41 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Modelling the investment cost as a function of the failure probability is an approach that has been presented in detail by Voortman (2003). In this method, the costs of measures against different failure mechanisms, and the degree that they reduce the failure probability of dyke-segments, are explicitly taken into account.…”

Section: Dependent Sections I Independent Sections Imentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The curves refer to the sea dykes of Ommelander and the Eems Harbour in the province of Groningen in the Fig. 3 Overview of studied cases Netherlands, which have been fit to data derived by Voortman (2003), using the method of least squares. The used data concern the correlation between investment costs and failure probabilities of the two dyke-stretches.…”

Section: Dependent Sections I Independent Sections Imentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In case of weak or no correlation though, the optimal failure probability will not be uniform, hence an average value, probably less accurate, will need to be assigned. We suggest approaching this problem by defining an average function of the investment cost for each consequence-segment and its failure probability, using the line of thought of Voortman (2003). From a practical point of view, defining investment cost functions on the level of consequencesegments will allow a cost-optimization directly on this spatial scale, hence direct use of the flooding scenarios of VNK2.…”

Section: Choice Of Spatial Scalementioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic optimization of flood prevention systems in the Netherlands

Tsimopoulou

Kok

Vrijling

2015

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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After the flood disaster of 1953, the Netherlands adopted a rational approach to flood risk management with the use of protection standards determined by means of costbenefit analysis. Due to scientific and political developments that have recently taken place, an update of the Dutch protection standards is being undertaken. One of the major priorities considered, is the need to address three issues, namely: (1) expressing the protection standards as failure probabilities of the flood defences, i.e. probabilities of breaching, instead of exceedance frequencies of water levels that is currently the case, (2) taking into account a spatial variability of those failure probabilities, and (3) considering various flooding scenarios. These aspects have been comprehensively addressed within a national flood risk analysis project, and partly considered in a numerical cost-benefit analysis approach, developed for the determination of new protection standards in the Netherlands. This paper presents an analytical economic optimization approach that makes an explicit link with all results of the national flood risk analysis project. In particular, an approach is outlined for the approximation of economically optimal design values of the failure probabilities along dyke-ring segments, which are treated as a series system of flood defences. The approach can assist in the determination of new protection standards in the Netherlands, but also in the design of flood prevention systems elsewhere.

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Section: Dependent Sections I Independent Sections Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Dependent Sections I Independent Sections Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Choice Of Spatial Scalementioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic optimization of flood prevention systems in the Netherlands

Tsimopoulou

Kok

Vrijling

2015

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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“…Outcomes of risk assessment can be used in the design process to decide on the required safety levels of new systems (e.g., a new tunnel) or to support decisions on the acceptability of safety levels and the need for measures in existing systems (e.g., a flood defense system). A quantitative measure of some form is needed to transfer decisions on acceptable safety into a technical domain (Voortman, 2004). Examples are choices in the design of civil structures such as the height of a flood defense or the strength of a building.…”

Section: Effectiveness Of Measures To Reduce Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

Miller

Jonkman

Ledden

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that -depending on the flood scenario -the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.

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“…This is only if the investment function is defined as the minimum investment in the component for a given failure probability. Therefore, the investment function can be found by minimization of the investments in the section for a number of prescribed failure probabilities (Voortman & Vrijling 2001). …”

Section: Optimizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Value of monitoring in road network management

Wagner

Gelder

2013

Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis

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The Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment of The Netherlands and Rijkswaterstaat (RWS) aim to launch a risk-driven maintenance concept named RAMSSHEEP. Engineering and consultancy companies are expected to develop the RAMSSHEEP concept in order to create better maintenance strategies. The objective is to investigate whether RAMSSHEEP can be applied as a risk-driven maintenance tool for primary flood defence systems in The Netherlands. By applying a probabilistic approach to a flooding problem, more insight is gained in the advantages and disadvantages of RAM-SSHEEP. This paper addresses the problem which primary flood defence systems experience with respect to maintenance strategies. Often external political pressure is applied to improve reliability and availability and to reduce costs significantly. Therefore this paper suggests an approach that is able to find an optimal maintenance strategy by finding the economic most beneficial maintenance interval.More and more (large) companies have made an inventory of their process system(s) and qualified and quantified the possible risks that may endanger an optimal reliable performance of the system. The main

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Risk-Based Design of Large-Scale Flood Defence Systems

Cited by 41 publications

References 27 publications

Economic optimization of flood prevention systems in the Netherlands

Economic optimization of flood prevention systems in the Netherlands

Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

Value of monitoring in road network management

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