On the basis of quantitative reliability analysis of flood defence systems, two design methods are developed. The first is reliability-based design, where the optimal geometry of a flood defence system is obtained by minimising the cost of construction under a constraint on the probability of flooding of the protected area. Reliability-based design is an integral part of the second design method, risk-based design. In risk-based design, the appropriate flooding probability of a protected area is obtained by comparing the cost of protection with the risk reduction that is obtained. A case study illustrates the application of both methods.1 Risk analysis specialist, ARCADIS,
This article highlights recent developments in flood risk management in the Netherlands and presents approaches for reliability analysis and asset management for flood defences and hydraulic infrastructure. The functioning of this infrastructure is of great importance for the country as large parts of it are prone to flooding. Based on a nationwide flood risk assessment, new safety standards for flood defences have been derived in the form of maximal acceptable failure probabilities. A framework for the reliabilitybased analysis of the performance of hydraulic infrastructure is introduced. Within this context, various challenges are discussed, such as the dynamic nature of loads, resistance and reliability requirements over time. Various case studies are presented to highlight advances and challenges in various application fields. The first case illustrates how structural health monitoring contributes to a better characterisation of the reliability of the defences and how innovative measures can enhance the reliability. The second case discusses how the river system can be managed in the context of the new safety standards. The third case shows how upgrades and reinforcements of hydraulic structures can be evaluated taking into account (uncertain) future developments, such as sea level rise.
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