Risk factors for recidivism in individuals receiving community sentences: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Objective.We aimed to systematically review risk factors for criminal recidivism in individuals given community sentences.Methods.We searched seven bibliographic databases and additionally conducted targeted searches for studies that investigated risk factors for any repeat offending in individuals who had received community (non-custodial) sentences. We included investigations that reported data on at least one risk factor and allowed calculations of odds ratios (ORs). If a similar risk factor was reported in three or more primary studies, they were grouped into domains, and pooled ORs were calculated.Results.We identified 15 studies from 5 countries, which reported data on 14 independent samples and 246,608 individuals. We found that several dynamic (modifiable) risk factors were associated with criminal recidivism in community-sentenced populations, including mental health needs (OR = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–1.6), substance misuse (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1–4.9), association with antisocial peers (OR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.3–3.7), employment problems (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3–2.5), marital status (OR = 1.6, 95%: 1.4–1.8), and low income (OR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.1–3.4). The strength of these associations was comparable to that of static (non-modifiable) risk factors, such as age, gender, and criminal history.Conclusion.Assessing dynamic (modifiable) risk factors should be considered in all individuals given community sentences. The further integration of mental health, substance misuse, and criminal justice services may reduce reoffending risk in community-sentenced populations.

Rising inpatient numbers in forensic security hospitals of German federal state of Baden‐Württemberg: Background and explanatory approaches

“…In patients who completed forensic addiction treatment, reoffending was associated with continuous work experience before first diagnosis of mental illness, type of index offense, (secondary) traffic offenses, outpatient rehabilitation treatments, and escapes during compulsory treatment (Querengässer et al, 2018). These results are in line with well‐known risk factors for reoffending, including age, prior criminal history, substance use or employment instability (Bonta, Law, & Hanson, 1998; Gendreau, Little, & Goggin, 1996; Yukhnenko, Blackwood, & Fazel, 2020). They add to existing research by showing that dropping out of forensic addiction treatment interacts with risk factors for reoffending.…”

Rugby as a rehabilitation program in a United Kingdom Male Young Offenders’ Institution: key findings and implications from mixed methods research

“…Risk factors on release from prison were established by both groups of participants. The crucial time period of resettlement for predicting reoffending is well established (Dickson and Polaschek, 2014) and employment, housing and financial difficulties are key risk factors for young people newly released from prison (Yukhnenko et al, 2019). Unlike the no intervention group, participants of the intervention acknowledged barriers to seeking support, such as the image of masculinity (Kupers, 2005) and the perception of weakness in engaging in help-seeking behaviors (Seidler et al, 2016).…”

The Impact of a Reentry and Aftercare Program on Recidivism

“…Criminal history and antisocial pattern were the strongest predictors of both general and violent recidivism as well as substance abuse, education/employment, family/partner, and personal/psychological problems. Similarly, Yukhnenko et al (2020) examined the most commonly reported risk factors for recidivism in community-sentenced populations. They concluded that dynamic risk factors, such as mental health needs, substance misuse, association with antisocial peers, and employment problems, increased risk of recidivism in community-sentenced populations.…”