Risk of dam failure in benefit‐cost analysis

Abstract

A procedure is presented for calculating the costs of failure of a dam and for incorporating these risk costs into the evaluation process. Basically, it involves a calculation of expected value. One critical issue is what the probability of failure should be; given that research will not provide accurate values for some time, a default value (of 10−4 per dam year) is proposed to be used until better information becomes available. Another critical question is whether the refinement of incorporating risk costs is worthwhile; here, the risk‐benefit factor α is introduced to be used as a screening tool to decide the question. The importance of implicit value ascribed to lives lost through failure is discussed.

Overcoming failure in infrastructure risk governance implementation: large dams journey

“…Baecher, Paté, and De Neufville 1980), though the impact of risk governance paradigm to dam safety has not been widely published before the second half of the nineties (e.g. ANCOLD 2003; Bowles, Anderson, and Glover 1998;Hartford and Baecher 2004;among others).…”

Fragility Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dams

“…Methods are available for developing cost accounting stances and for evaluating failure costs (Baecher, et al, 1980;Ouelette, et al, 1985;Ellingwood, et al, 1993). …”

Cálculo de custo ambiental das usinas nucleares de Angra 1, 2 e 3 utilizando o programa SIMPACTS

“…O modelo realiza este cálculo, segundo a equação (4.8), utilizando valores para os fatores de emissão em g/kWh (EF Constr ) da tabela acima. A capacidade da usina em MWe (P) e o fator de capacidade (CF) médio em % também são considerados na equação (4.8) (IAEA, 2003a O risco de uma falha na barragem é estimado em aproximadamente 1.0E-04 por barragem a cada ano (BAECHER et al 1980;BRANDESTEN et al, 1993 (4.14)…”