Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

Frank, Aline; Howe, Glenn T.; Sperisen, Christoph; Brang, Peter; Clair, J. Bradley St.; Schmatz, Dirk R.; Heiri, Caroline

doi:10.1111/gcb.13802

Cited by 60 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 63 publications

(111 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The extent to which climatic optima differed with the climate of population origin varies among species (Figures and ). The lowest differences in climatic optimum among populations were found in A. alba , which emphasizes the low signal of local adaptation observed for this generalist species (Frank, Howe, et al, ; Latreille & Pichot, ), but also the few common gardens that were available to build the model ensembles in this species (Appendix S1). In addition, A. alba is a generalist species with limited local adaptation to temperature and water availability (Frank, Howe, et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…The lowest differences in climatic optimum among populations were found in A. alba , which emphasizes the low signal of local adaptation observed for this generalist species (Frank, Howe, et al, ; Latreille & Pichot, ), but also the few common gardens that were available to build the model ensembles in this species (Appendix S1). In addition, A. alba is a generalist species with limited local adaptation to temperature and water availability (Frank, Howe, et al, ). In contrast, P. pinaster showed the highest differences in climatic optimum among populations, which is in agreement with the high genetic differentiation of populations for quantitative traits and molecular proxies of local adaptation to climate in this species (González‐Martínez, Alía, & Gil, ; Jaramillo‐Correa et al, ; Vizcaíno‐Palomar, Revuelta‐Eugercios, Zavala, Alía, & González‐Martínez, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…For instance in trees, plasticity implies a rapid response to climatic changes (Kumarathunge et al, ; Mclean et al, ; Reich et al, ), while local adaptation does not. Local adaptation can constrain tree populations' capacity to survive under new climates, with few opportunities for evolutionary processes to keep pace with rapid climate change (Frank, Howe, et al, ). Ongoing climate change can drive tree populations away from their optimal climate, thereby promoting adaptation lags, measured as the difference between the optimum climate that maximize fitness‐related traits and the climate of origin of the population (Pedlar & McKenney, ; Rehfeldt et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

Fréjaville

Vizcaíno‐Palomar

Fady

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

How populations of long‐living species respond to climate change depends on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. Marginal populations are expected to have lags in adaptation (i.e. differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes population fitness and the local climate) because they receive pre‐adapted alleles from core populations preventing them from reaching a local optimum in their climatically marginal habitat. Yet, whether adaptation lags in marginal populations are a common feature across phylogenetically and ecologically different species and how lags can change with climate change remain unexplored. To test for range‐wide patterns of phenotypic variation and adaptation lags of populations to climate, we (a) built model ensembles of tree height accounting for the climate of population origin and the climate of the site for 706 populations monitored in 97 common garden experiments covering the range of six European forest tree species; (b) estimated populations' adaptation lags as the differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes tree height and the climate of the origin of each population; (c) identified adaptation lag patterns for populations coming from the warm/dry and cold/wet margins and from the distribution core of each species range. We found that (a) phenotypic variation is driven by either temperature or precipitation; (b) adaptation lags are consistently higher in climatic margin populations (cold/warm, dry/wet) than in core populations; (c) predictions for future warmer climates suggest adaptation lags would decrease in cold margin populations, slightly increasing tree height, while adaptation lags would increase in core and warm margin populations, sharply decreasing tree height. Our results suggest that warm margin populations are the most vulnerable to climate change, but understanding how these populations can cope with future climates depend on whether other fitness‐related traits could show similar adaptation lag patterns.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

Fréjaville

Vizcaíno‐Palomar

Fady

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This may lead to maladaptation when individuals are exposed to another environment (Frank et al. ). This (mal)adaptation can, in turn, affect vital rates such as survival and reproduction and therefore lead to changes in the mean population structure and growth (Chevin et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the prevalence of similar environmental conditions under positive autocorrelation allows for adaptation to these conditions (Lande and Shannon 1996). This may lead to maladaptation when individuals are exposed to another environment (Frank et al 2017). This (mal)adaptation can, in turn, affect vital rates such as survival and reproduction and therefore lead to changes in the mean population structure and growth (Chevin et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of temporal environmental autocorrelation on eco‐evolutionary dynamics across life histories

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

One of the largest causes of fluctuations in the size and structure of populations is changes in the environment. In nature, these changes are often temporally autocorrelated and the strength and direction of the autocorrelation can affect population dynamics. These effects are mediated by complex, simultaneously occurring ecological and evolutionary processes, such as phenotypic plasticity and selection. Determining how these processes interact to affect responses of different life histories to autocorrelated environmental fluctuations is of paramount importance to infer which taxa are likely to go extinct or become invasive under global change. Here, we assessed the effect of autocorrelation in environmental states on the trait and population dynamics of different life histories using an evolutionary explicit individual‐based modeling approach. We found that, in general, higher positive temporal autocorrelation caused more variation in population size. Fast life histories were more affected than slow ones as they were able to adapt more quickly to varying environmental optima and therefore experienced larger initial decreases in population size when optima changed. Including adaptive phenotypic plasticity buffered the effects of autocorrelation on population dynamics while nonadaptive plasticity amplified them, especially for slow life histories, which recovered less from maladaptation. This study highlights that integration of phenotypic plasticity, selection, and population dynamics is important to improve our understanding of how different life histories deal with autocorrelated climate variability.

show abstract

Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species

Etterson

Cornett

White

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Boreal forests are experiencing dramatic climate change, having warmed 1.0°–1.9°C over the last century. Yet forest regeneration practices are often still dictated by a fixed seed zone framework, in which seeds are both harvested from and planted into predefined areas. Our goal was to determine whether seedlings sourced from southern seed zones in Minnesota USA are already better adapted to northerly seed zones because of climate change. Bur oak ( Quercus macrocarpa ) and northern red oak ( Quercus rubra ) seedlings from two seed zones (i.e., tree ecotypes) were planted into 16 sites in two northern seed zones and measured for 3 yr. Our hypotheses were threefold: (1) tree species with more southern geographic distributions would thrive in northern forests where climate has already warmed substantially, (2) southern ecotypes of these species would have higher survival and growth than the northern ecotype in northern environments, and (3) natural selection would favor seedlings that expressed phenotypic and phenological traits characteristic of trees sourced from the more southern seed zone. For both species, survival was high (>93%), and southern ecotypes expressed traits consistent with our climate adaptation hypotheses. Ecotypic differences were especially evident for red oak; the southern ecotype had had higher survival, lower specific leaf area ( SLA ), faster height and diameter growth, and extended leaf phenology relative to the northern ecotype. Bur oak results were weaker, but the southern ecotype also had earlier budburst and lower SLA than the northern ecotype. Models based on the fixed seed zones failed to explain seedling performance as well as those with continuous predictors (e.g., climate and geographical position), suggesting that plant adaptations within current seed zone delineations do align with changing climate conditions. Adding support for this conclusion, natural selection favored traits expressed by the more southern tree ecotypes. Collectively, these results suggest that state seed sourcing guidelines should be reexamined to permit plantings across seed zones, a form of assisted migration. More extensive experiments (i.e., provenance trails) are necessary to make species‐specific seed transfer guidelines that account for climate trends while also considering the precise geographic origin of seed sources.

show abstract

Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species

Cited by 60 publications

References 63 publications

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

The effect of temporal environmental autocorrelation on eco‐evolutionary dynamics across life histories

Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About