2012
DOI: 10.1257/aer.102.7.3357
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Risk Preferences Are Not Time Preferences

Abstract: Risk and time are intertwined. The present is known while the future is inherently risky. Discounted expected utility provides a simple, coherent structure for analyzing decisions in intertemporal, uncertain environments. Critical to such analysis is the notion that certain and uncertain utility are functionally interchangeable. We document an important and robust violation of discounted expected utility, which is essentially a violation of this interchangeability. In parameter estimations, certain utility is … Show more

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Cited by 414 publications
(285 citation statements)
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References 47 publications
(23 reference statements)
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“…A gender gap is a recurrent finding also with the Outcome Scale method. For instance, The availability of a safe option within the set of alternatives has been shown to increase the likelihood of observing violations of expected utility theory (Andreoni and Sprenger, 2012;Camerer, 1992;Harless and Camerer, 1994;Starmer, 2000), and therefore a possibility is that the impact of certainty effects differs by gender.…”
Section: Gender Differences and The Characteristics Of The Taskmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…A gender gap is a recurrent finding also with the Outcome Scale method. For instance, The availability of a safe option within the set of alternatives has been shown to increase the likelihood of observing violations of expected utility theory (Andreoni and Sprenger, 2012;Camerer, 1992;Harless and Camerer, 1994;Starmer, 2000), and therefore a possibility is that the impact of certainty effects differs by gender.…”
Section: Gender Differences and The Characteristics Of The Taskmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Explanations for this delay discounting phenomenon tend to emphasize that the uncertainty of future rewards makes capitalising on immediate opportunities a beneficial strategy in many circumstances (Andreoni & Sprenger, 2012;Daly & Wilson, 2005;Stevens & Stephens, 2010). Indeed, 'intertemporal choices' between immediate and delayed rewards are highly sensitive to context in humans (Lempert & Phelps, 2015).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Second, the transfer of risky cardinal utility to riskless intertemporal choice is controversial (Luce and Raiffa 1957, Fallacy 3;Camerer 1995;Moscati 2013). Andreoni and Sprenger (2012b) and provided empirical evidence against such a transfer. When introducing discounted utility, Samuelson (1937, last paragraph) immediately warned that cardinal intertemporal utility may differ from other kinds of cardinal utility.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%