2021
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-391478/v1
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RNA-Seq Reveals Adaptive Genetic Potential of the Rare Torrey Pine (Pinus torreyana) in the Face of Ips Bark Beetle Outbreaks

Abstract: The ability of tree species to adapt to water stress and increased frequency of bark beetle outbreaks with climate change may increase with population size and standing genetic variation, calling into question the resilience of small, rare plant populations. The Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana) is a rare, genetically depauperate conifer that occurs naturally in a mainland and island population in southern California. Due to recent declines in the mainland population coinciding with drought and Ips paraconfusus ba… Show more

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“…Given historical and contemporary estimates of effective population size as well as contemporary estimates of expected heterozygosity, our results indicate Torrey pine may not retain the genetic variation within populations needed to adapt to change. Current monitoring within the mainland population suggests a lack of recruitment (personal observation by Lionel Di Santo, July 2017), infestation by Ips beetles (Steele et al, 2021), and climate warming (Diffenbaugh et al, 2015) may increase extinction risk. Thus, for Torrey pine, increased Ne and greater genetic diversity may be required for long‐term persistence.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Given historical and contemporary estimates of effective population size as well as contemporary estimates of expected heterozygosity, our results indicate Torrey pine may not retain the genetic variation within populations needed to adapt to change. Current monitoring within the mainland population suggests a lack of recruitment (personal observation by Lionel Di Santo, July 2017), infestation by Ips beetles (Steele et al, 2021), and climate warming (Diffenbaugh et al, 2015) may increase extinction risk. Thus, for Torrey pine, increased Ne and greater genetic diversity may be required for long‐term persistence.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%