Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation

Dickerson, Andrew; Peirson, John; Vickerman, Roger

doi:10.1111/1468-0335.00198

Cited by 84 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Newberry (1988) and Vitalino and Held (1991) find nearly proportional patterns, while and Martin (2002) show parabolic functional relationships. Dickerson et al (2000) also confirmed a non-linear pattern, revealing that the nearlyproportional relationship may be erroneous since it may result from the aggregation of heterogeneous accident-flow relationships which do not exhibit proportionality. In particular, the magnitude of accident externality varies between road classifications and geographical areas.…”

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confidence: 69%

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Shifting Death to Their Alternatives: The Case of Toll Motorways

Albalate

2007

SSRN Journal

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confidence: 69%

“…1 Some recent works also show how accidents increase with congestion cuts, emerging a trade-off between both externalities Dickerson et al, 2000;Martin, 2002;Noland and Quddus, 2005). However, toll setting in practice has been usually decided to fight congestion and funding infrastructure without taking into account road safety outcomes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifting Death to Their Alternatives: The Case of Toll Motorways

Albalate

2007

SSRN Journal

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“…Many of these have examined the role of speed or traffic flow on the probability of an accident or traffic fatality and are useful in calculating road user charges (Golob, Recker, and Alvarez, (in press); Dickerson, Peirson and Vickerman, 2000;Shefer and Rietveld, 1997;Vitaliano and Held, 1991). Other studies (mostly appearing in the transport engineering literature) examine the impact of road environment conditions (roadway design and weather) on accident rates and severity (Milton and Mannering, 1998).…”

Section: Micro-level Studies Of the Causes Of Accidents Or Fatalitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth

Kopits¹,

Cropper²

2003

Policy Research Working Papers

217

218

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This dissertation adds to the current understanding of the socioeconomic determinants of traffic fatality rates by examining the variation in road deaths across countries and over time. Chapter two investigates the relationship between road safety and economic development within an Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. Reduced-form models of fatality risk as a function of per capita income are estimated using panel data for over 80 countries. The results confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship with income, with traffic fatality risk (fatalities per population) beginning to decline at incomes similar to those found for several environmental externalities. The turning point is driven by the rate of decline in fatalities per vehicle as income rises, since motorization rates (vehicles per population), while increasing with income at a decreasing rate, never decline with economic growth. This suggests that road safety improvements accompanying income growth depend on policies that reduce fatalities per vehicle rather than on reducing motorization.Projections suggest that the global road death toll will grow by 66% between 2000 and 2020 if historic trends continue. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world.Chapter three focuses on factors underlying the decline in fatalities per distance traveled, i.e., the downward sloping part of the road safety Kuznets curve.Formal models of traffic fatalities are developed for vehicle occupants and pedestrians. Reduced-form approximations to these models are estimated using panel data for over 30 high-income countries over 1964-2002. Estimates suggest that demographic changes and road building contributed to declines in both vehicle occupant and non-occupant fatality rates. In addition, increases in the size of the vehicle fleet, as predicted by theory, have increased occupant deaths while decreasing pedestrian deaths per distance driven.Improvements in medical care also played a role in reducing both fatality rates. The results do not offer evidence of a significant increase in demand for risky driving in response to newer, safer vehicles or seatbelt usage. The extent to which alcohol and increases in the elderly population have detrimental effects on fatality rates is found to be twice as large for pedestrians as for vehicle occupants.

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“…Research undertaken by Dickerson et al (2000) investigated the relationship between the frequency of road crashes and traffic flow with the aim of estimating the change in the external cost of crashes caused by additional traffic flow. Different road types and geographical areas were considered and they found that a strong negative crash externality was associated with high traffic flows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Road Traffic Congestion and Crash Severity: Econometric Analysis Using Ordered Response Models

2010

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Abstract:There is an ongoing debate among transport planners and safety policy makers as to whether there is any association between the level of traffic congestion and road safety. One can expect that the increased level of traffic congestion aids road safety and this is because average traffic speed is relatively low in a congested condition relative to an un-congested condition which may result in less severe crashes. The relationship between congestion and safety may not be so straightforward however as there are a number of other factors such as, traffic flow, driver characteristics, road geometry and vehicle design affecting crash severity. Previous studies have employed count data models (either Poisson or negative binomials and their extensions) while developing a relationship between the frequency of traffic crashes and traffic flow or density (as a proxy for traffic congestion). The use of aggregated crash counts at a road segment level or at an area level with the proxy for congestion may obscure the actual relationship. The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between the severity of road crashes and the level of traffic congestion using disaggregated crash records and a measure of traffic congestion while controlling for other contributory factors. Ordered response models such as ordered logit models, heterogeneous choice models and generalised ordered logit (partially constrained) models suitable for both ordinal dependent variables and disaggregate crash data are used. Data on crashes, traffic characteristics (e.g., congestion, flow, speed) and road geometry (e.g., curvature and gradient) were collected from the M25 London orbital motorway between 2003 and 2006. Our results suggest that the level of traffic congestion does not affect the severity of road crashes on the M25 motorway. The impact of traffic flow on the severity of crashes however shows an interesting result. All other factors included in the models also provide results consistent with existing studies.

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Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation

Cited by 84 publications

References 16 publications

Shifting Death to Their Alternatives: The Case of Toll Motorways

Shifting Death to Their Alternatives: The Case of Toll Motorways

Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth

Road Traffic Congestion and Crash Severity: Econometric Analysis Using Ordered Response Models

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