Road Fatality Model Based on Over-Dispersion Data Along Federal Route F0050

Musa, Wan Zahidah; Prasetijo, Joewono; Zainal, Zaffan Farhana

doi:10.1051/matecconf/201710308012

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Zero inflated version models of Poisson, NB, and CMP can be applied to overcome such problems. For example, the Poisson, NB, ZIP and ZINB were used to model of numbers of RAFs on the highest accident road F0050 in Malaysia [25] and in the Oromia region, Ethiopia [19]. Modeling zero inflated regression of Poisson and NB of the number of RTFs on the road F001 - Jalan Jb Air Hitam and on the road FT050 - Kluang-A/Hitam-B/Pahat, Malaysia was presented by [24] and [26], respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Differences in the distribution of accidents, deaths, and injuries could be attributed to the variation between roads and their surroundings. Several studies estimate the frequency of RTAs and/or RAFs by traditional Poisson regression [17], Negative Binomial (NB) regression [18][19][20], and Conway-Maxwell Poisson (CMP) regression [21][22][23], as well as estimate the count data with excessive zeroes by zero-inflated regression models [24][25][26]. However, predictive models for deaths and/or injuries are limited in Thailand road safety.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling Road Accident Fatalities with Underdispersion and Zero-inflated Counts

Simmachan

Wongsai

et al. 2022

Preprint

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BackgroundThailand was rank second in the world in 2013 on the road accident fatality (RAF) rate, killing 36.2 of every 100,000 Thai peoples. In the past decade, during Songkran festival, the traditional Thai new year, the number of road traffic accidents (RTAs) was markedly higher than normal day life, but few studies have yet investigated this issue as the effect of festivity. The objective of this study was to investigate factors contributing to RAF using various count regression models.MethodsData of 20,229 accidents in 2015 were collected from the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Thailand. Poisson, Conway–Maxwell–Poisson, and their Zero-Inflated versions were applied to analyze factors associated with the number of fatalities in an accident.ResultsThe RAFs in Thailand follow a count distribution with underdispersion and excessive zeros which is rare. The best fitting model, the ZICMP regression model returns significant predictors (road characteristics, weather conditions, environmental conditions, and month) on the number of fatalities in an accident. The model consists of the count part encapsulating both non-excess zeros and death counts and the zero-part representing the considerable number of zeros during the festival months. The estimated proportion of the zero-part is 0.275 accounting for 5,563 non-fatal accidents. More specifically, the excessive number of no deaths can be explained by the month factor. The mean number of fatalities was lower in the festive periods than other months, with the highest in November.ConclusionFor long, Thai authorities have put a lot of efforts and resources into improving road safety over the festival weeks, often they failed. This study indicates that people’s risk perception and public awareness of RAFs are mislead. Instead, nationwide road safety should have been announced by the authorities to raise the awareness of society towards everyday personal safety and the safety of others.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Road Accident Fatalities with Underdispersion and Zero-inflated Counts

Simmachan

Wongsai

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Crash model based on integrated design consistency with low traffic volumes (due to health disaster (COVID-19)/movement control order)

Prasetijo

Zhang

Jawi³

et al. 2020

Innov. Infrastruct. Solut.

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Malaysia is listed as one of Asia's developing countries with high-road accidents rate. The accident involves the most between the motorcyclist and other vehicles such as a passenger car which is 17 times safer than the motorcyclist. Current research reveals that the three major forms of incidents in Malaysia are single-motorcycle incidents, passenger car crashes and carsmotorcycles crash. In general, the lack of accuracy of road geometric design, traffic volumes and overlapping movements of vehicles was the main cause of road accidents in Malaysia, which caused drivers to make mistakes and errors due to road geometric characteristics and traffic environments. However, during our recent COVID-19 pandemic, the traffic volumes are relatively low in the whole country as the government announces the movement control order in March 2020. The country was almost completely lockdown (people and vehicles' movements were controlled). In contrast with the reduction of the traffic volumes, the number of crashes shows relatively high numbers. This phenomenon can be derived so that other factors cause vehicle crashes and fatalities should be considered. Several factors related to road geometric such as lane width, shoulder width, access point, curve length and tangent length are considered in developing profiles of operating speed for motorcycles and cars formed of tangents and curves. The analysis of the geometric factors and traffic environments took place at federal road F0050 from 21 to 25 km in Johor, Malaysia. This study was carried out using GPS (DG-200) where the data (vehicles tracked movements) on the continuous speed profiles used a current method of analysis to determine the profiles of road design consistency for motorcycles and cars. The profiles are used to measure the importance index of the integrated design consistency model of the road. The model depends on parameters such as the confine region of speed profiles, average speed, and velocity deviation standard of the profiles. Therefore, a special software of ACAD was used to build the profile of the consistency model. The design accuracy of the speed profile in traffic and safety assessments are affected by the integrated-consistency model. The highest number of accidents has been identified at 24 km at F0050 based on the area design consistency where poor design is the integrated quality consistency model for car and motorcycle. The study shows that crashes and fatalities are not fully affected by traffic volumes but road design performances and driving behaviors.

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Study of Car Acceleration and Deceleration Characteristics at Dangerous Route FT050

Omar

Prasetijo

Daniel

et al. 2018

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Road Fatality Model Based on Over-Dispersion Data Along Federal Route F0050

Cited by 9 publications

References 9 publications

Modelling Road Accident Fatalities with Underdispersion and Zero-inflated Counts

Modelling Road Accident Fatalities with Underdispersion and Zero-inflated Counts

Crash model based on integrated design consistency with low traffic volumes (due to health disaster (COVID-19)/movement control order)

Study of Car Acceleration and Deceleration Characteristics at Dangerous Route FT050

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