Roadmap for achieving net-zero emissions in global food systems by 2050

Abstract

Food systems (FSs) emit ~20 GtCO2e/y (~35% of global greenhouse gas emissions). This level is supposed to raise given the expected increases in food demands, which may threaten global climate targets. By evaluating 60+ scenarios based on existing low-emission and carbon sequestration practices, we estimate that intensifying FSs could reduce its emissions from 21.4 to -2.0 GtCO2e/y and address increasing food demands without relying on carbon offsets. However, given historical trends and regional contexts, a more diverse portfolio of practices, including diet shifts and new-horizon technologies, will be needed to increase the feasibility of achieving net-zero FSs. One likely pathway consists of implementing practices that shift food production to the 30th-percentile of least emission-intensive FS (~45% emissions reduction), sequester carbon at 50% of its potential (~5 GtCO2e/y) and adopt diet shifts and new-horizon technologies (~6 GtCO2e/y). For a successful transition to happen, the global FS would, in the next decade (2020s), need to implement cost-effective mitigation practices and technologies, supported by improvements in countries’ governance and technical assistance, innovative financial mechanisms and research focused on making affordable technologies in the following two decades (2030-2050). This work provides options and a vision to guide global FSs to achieving net-zero by 2050.