“…The applications of this class of models and its continuous-time version penetrate different areas in modern financial economics. Some works on these applications include Elliott and van der Hoek [13] for asset allocation, Pliska [29] and Elliott et al [14] or short rate models, Elliott and Hinz [15] for portfolio analysis and chart analysis, Guo [22] and Buffington and Elliott [2,3] for option valuation and Elliott et al [16] for volatility estimation.…”
We study the pricing of an option when the price dynamic of the underlying risky asset is governed by a Markov-modulated geometric Brownian motion. We suppose that the drift and volatility of the underlying risky asset are modulated by an observable continuous-time, finite-state Markov chain. We develop a twostage pricing model which can price both the diffusion risk and the regime-switching risk based on the Esscher transform and the minimization of the maximum entropy between an equivalent martingale measure and the real-world probability measure over different states. Numerical experiments are conducted and their results reveal that the impact of pricing regime-switching risk on the option prices is significant.
“…The applications of this class of models and its continuous-time version penetrate different areas in modern financial economics. Some works on these applications include Elliott and van der Hoek [13] for asset allocation, Pliska [29] and Elliott et al [14] or short rate models, Elliott and Hinz [15] for portfolio analysis and chart analysis, Guo [22] and Buffington and Elliott [2,3] for option valuation and Elliott et al [16] for volatility estimation.…”
We study the pricing of an option when the price dynamic of the underlying risky asset is governed by a Markov-modulated geometric Brownian motion. We suppose that the drift and volatility of the underlying risky asset are modulated by an observable continuous-time, finite-state Markov chain. We develop a twostage pricing model which can price both the diffusion risk and the regime-switching risk based on the Esscher transform and the minimization of the maximum entropy between an equivalent martingale measure and the real-world probability measure over different states. Numerical experiments are conducted and their results reveal that the impact of pricing regime-switching risk on the option prices is significant.
“…For an overview of hidden Markov Chain processes and their financial applications, see Elliott et al [11] and Elliott and Kopp [13]. Some works on the use of hidden Markov Chain models in finance include Elliott and van der Hoek [12] for asset allocation, Pliska [35] and Elliott et al [14] for short rate models, Elliott and Hinz [15] for portfolio analysis and chart analysis, Guo [25] for option pricing under market incompleteness, Buffington and Elliott [4,5] for pricing European and American options, Elliott et al [16] for volatility estimation and the working paper by Elliott and Chan in 2004 for a dynamic portfolio selection problem. Much of the work in the literature focus on the use of the Esscher transform for option valuation under incomplete markets induced by L茅vy-type processes.…”
“…In such a setting, the parameter estimation problem posed a real challenge, mainly due to the fact that the paths of the CTMC were unobserved. A standard approach consists in using the celebrated EM algorithm (Dempster, Laird and Rubin, 1977) [8] as proposed, for example in Elliott, Malcolm and Tsoi (2003) [9] and Hamilton (1990) [10], study this problem using a filtering approach.…”
The estimation of claims reserves is usually done by applying techniques called IBNR techniques within a stochastic framework. The main objective of this paper is to predict the partial reserve and to estimate the error rate of prediction distributions by using the stochastic model proposed in [1].
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