To develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management.
Patients and MethodsA 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multicentre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi-centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the UK, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non-contrast computed tomography of the kidneys, ureters, and bladder. SSP was defined as the 'absence of the need for intervention'. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest Akaike's information criterion) in a subset from 2009-2015 (n = 1728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016-2017 (n = 789).