Roles of climate variability on the rapid increases of early winter haze pollution in North China after 2010

Zhang, Yijia; Yin, Zhicong; Wang, Huijun

doi:10.5194/acp-20-12211-2020

Cited by 22 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Air pollution has become one of the major issues in China and the greatest threat to public health. Since the implementation of the "Atmospheric Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan" in 2013 (China State Council, 2013), aerosol emissions have dramatically decreased, with sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) reduced by 59 % in 2017 compared to 2013 (Zheng et al, 2018). However, haze events have still occurred regularly in recent years, as, in addition to being influenced by aerosol emissions, meteorological conditions, including limited scavenging, dispersion and ventilation, have been found to play important roles in the variation in air quality in northern China Cai et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios

Zhang

Wilcox²,

Dunstone³

et al. 2021

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Air pollution is a major issue in China and one of the largest threats to public health. We investigated future changes in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with haze events in the Beijing region and the severity of haze events during these circulation conditions from 2015 to 2049 under two different aerosol scenarios: a maximum technically feasible aerosol reduction (MTFR) and a current legislation aerosol scenario (CLE). In both cases greenhouse gas emissions follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 with CLE aerosol the frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events increases due to a weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon via increased sea level pressure over the North Pacific. The rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions in MTFR further increases the frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events, due to further increases in the sea level pressure over the North Pacific and a reduction in the intensity of the Siberian high. Even with the aggressive aerosol reductions in MTFR periods of poor visibility, represented by above-normal aerosol optical depth (AOD), still occur in conjunction with haze-favorable atmospheric circulation. However, the winter mean intensity of poor visibility decreases in MTFR, so that haze events are less dangerous in this scenario by 2050 compared to CLE and relative to the current baseline. This study reveals the competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to pollutant source and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. A compound consideration of these two impacts should be taken in future policy making.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios

Zhang

Wilcox²,

Dunstone³

et al. 2021

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…Zhang et al . (2020) found that the impact of climate anomalies, such as Eurasian snow cover, central Siberian soil moisture, and autumn SST in the Pacific and Atlantic, on haze pollution in North China became increasingly important after 2010. For example, the PM 2.5 concentration in the winter of 2018 in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region and surrounding 26 cities rebounded significantly compared to the winter of 2017 due to the influence of an autumn SST anomaly over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans and Beaufort Sea ice (Yin and Zhang, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of climate/meteorology to winter haze pollution in the Fenwei Plain, China

Zhao

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In recent years, anthropogenic emissions in the Fenwei Plain (FWP) have decreased; however, haze pollution remains a serious issue. This study explored the possible reasons for this enduring problem in terms of climate and meteorology. Firstly, the contribution of climate and meteorology to haze pollution in the FWP was quantified using a best fit model and differences in key meteorological parameters were analysed over several time periods. Key climate factors were identified using a relative importance test and correlation analysis, and the adjusted optimal subset model (AOSM) was used to predict the number of winter haze days for the entire winter and for individual winter months, respectively. Results showed that the average minimum contribution (CONave) of climate/meteorology to winter haze pollution was 24.3% from 1984 to 2016 and the modulating role of climate and meteorological conditions increased significantly after 2010 (CONave = 55.8%). This was attributed to a significant decrease (increase) in sea level pressure and surface wind speed (500 hPa geopotential height and surface temperature) in the FWP. The explained variance (R2) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the models for the entire winter period were 88% and 3.54 days, respectively. For predictions in November, December, January, and February, the R2 was above 71% and the MAE was below 1.83 days. Furthermore, independent predictions for 2018 showed that the bias in the monthly models was lower by 5 days compared to the entire winter model. The results of a recycling independent test indicated that all the models evaluated had excellent stability, proving that the climate factors chosen by the AOSM do affect haze pollution in the FWP.

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“…There are potentially a number of factors at play that may cause haze to remain a frequent occurrence despite the decrease in aerosol and precursor emissions. Meteorological conditions (Zhang et al, 2020) play an important role in modulating the occurrence and persistence of haze events. In fact, atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to haze events may increase in the future as the climate warms (Cai et al, 2017;Pei and Yan, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to haze events may increase in the future as the climate warms (Cai et al, 2017;Pei and Yan, 2018). Continued haze events could also be due to a lack of mitigation of secondary aerosols (Huang et al, 2014;Zheng et al, 2018;An et al, 2019;Le et al, 2020). In 2020, severe haze was formed during the L. Guo et al: Competing effects in Beijing haze COVID-19 lockdown despite emission reductions of 40 %, with reduction of up to 90 % from the transportation sector (Le et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Competing effects of aerosol reductions and circulation changes for future improvements in Beijing haze

et al. 2021

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Abstract. Despite local emission reductions, severe haze events remain a serious issue in Beijing. Previous studies have suggested that both greenhouse gas increases and aerosol decreases are likely to increase the frequency of weather patterns conducive to haze events. However, the combined effect of atmospheric circulation changes and aerosol and precursor emission changes on Beijing haze remains unclear. We use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to explore the effects of aerosol and greenhouse gas emission changes on both haze weather and Beijing haze itself. We confirm that the occurrence of haze weather patterns is likely to increase in future under all SSPs and show that even though aerosol reductions play a small role, greenhouse gas increases are the main driver, especially during the second half of the 21st century. However, the severity of the haze events decreases on decadal timescales by as much as 70 % by 2100. The main influence on the haze itself is the reductions in local aerosol emissions, which outweigh the effects of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. This demonstrates that aerosol reductions are beneficial, despite their influence on the circulation.

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Roles of climate variability on the rapid increases of early winter haze pollution in North China after 2010

Cited by 22 publications

References 40 publications

Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios

Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios

Contribution of climate/meteorology to winter haze pollution in the Fenwei Plain, China

Competing effects of aerosol reductions and circulation changes for future improvements in Beijing haze

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