Russia and the World: 2017 IMEMO Forecast

Abstract

Russia enters 2017 in a paradoxical situation. The Kremlin is open and ready for strategic negotiations on the entire spectrum of world issues. It is free from any internal political constraints that would impede upon its foreign policy and is thus in a position to act effectively. Yet Russia finds itself alone at the negotiating table. Russia's partners are busy with either elections (the US in November 2016, France and Germany in 2017) or critical institutional issues (the European Union) and are therefore not prepared to negotiate or, more importantly, to resolve strategic global issues. However, the three key issues-Syria, terrorism, and Ukrainewill determine the general agenda and, indeed, the very possibility of further negotiations between Russia and the West. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), which have provided alternative formats, and have been the backbone of Russia's political narrative in recent years, are faltering. The political crisis in Brazil and a general rightward political shift in Latin America stymie any talk of an intensified development of relations with the countries of the region as a pre-emptive counterweight to deteriorating relations with the West. In 2017, these trends will continue to develop. The lack of strategic goal-setting by Western partners hinders the shaping and implementation of the Kremlin's foreign policy, thereby forcing it to continue feeling its way, looking for instruments to maintain the fragile balance and dialogue. This has resulted in actions ranging from the heavy-handed (e.g. in early October President Putin signed a decree suspending the plutonium utilisation agreement with the 85