SARIMA model for compiling the planting calendar

Abstract

Rainfall patterns uncertainty in Southeast Sulawesi-Indonesia is causing many paddy crop failures. There needs to be an adjustment when the appropriate farming time. One of the adaptation efforts in dealing with the influence of climate shift is to establish a planting calendar. Paddy planting calendar is to determine the success of the harvest. The SARIMA model (0,0,0)(0,1,3)12 is the best model for predicting rainfall data. Prediction results show that the highest rainfall occurs in January-July and November-December. Planting time can be done in January-July and November-December by avoiding August, September, and October.