SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India: epidemiological features and in silico analysis of the effect of interventions

Abstract

Background: After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the virus in the country. This included restricted testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and enforcement of a nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020. The objectives of this study were to i) describe the age, gender distribution, and mortality among COVID-19 patients identified till 14 April 2020 and predict the range of contact rate; and ii) predict the number of COVID-19 infections after 40 days of lockdown. Methods: We used a cross-sectional descriptive design for the first objective and a susceptible-infected-removed model for in silico predictions. We collected data from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites. Results: Studying age and gender parameters of 1161 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age was 38 years (IQR, 27-52) with 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. The number of affected patients were 854 (73.6%) men and 307 (26.4%) women. If the current contact rate continues (0.25-27), India may have 110460 to 220575 infected persons at the end of 40 days lockdown. Conclusion: The disease is majorly affecting a younger age group in India. Interventions have been helpful in preventing the worst-case scenario in India but will be unable to prevent the spike in the number of cases.

COVID-19 in Rajasthan: Status and Effects of Containment Measures

“…Even in Italy the CFR is reported more than the present study. 16 Studies [17][18][19][20] conducted in India are very few but they have also reported CFR more than the present study. Basu D et al 17 found CFR 3.5% in their study.…”

“…Other studies of India and other countries also reported almost similar observations regarding age and sex affected due to this disease. Mazumder A et al 18 reported median age 38 years with M:F ratio 2.78 and 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. Gupta N et al 19 reported median age 54 years with interquartile range: 44-63 and M:F ratio of 4.…”

“…Case fatality rate was found lesser than that of reported by other authors. [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20] whether in-house or in other countries. Most of studies were conducted in China like Wu Z et al 13 reported case fatality rate 2.3% with 14.8% in the above 80 years population in China.…”

“…Basu D et al 17 found CFR 3.5% in their study. Mazumder A et al 18 conducted a study on 1161 COVID patients and reported that 29 deaths and 94 patients recovered cases calculating CFR 2.5% and Recovery rate 8.1%. This recovery rate was also significantly lower than the present study (8.1% v/s 55.24%).…”

Impact of the initial phase of COVID‐19 pandemic on surgical oncology services at a tertiary care center in Eastern India

“…The COVID‐19 pandemic has caused a global health emergency and affected the resources in both the public and private health sectors significantly. India reported its first case on 30 January 2020 1 . On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) had declared it as a global pandemic and as a public health emergency of international concern 2 .…”