Satellite- versus temperature-derived green wave indices for predicting the timing of spring migration of avian herbivores

Abstract

Keywords:GWI index GDD jerk index Barnacle geese Stopover site Breeding site Mixed effect linear regression a b s t r a c t According to the green wave hypothesis, herbivores follow the flush of spring growth of forage plants during their spring migration to northern breeding grounds. In this study we compared two green wave indices for predicting the timing of the spring migration of avian herbivores: the satellite-derived green wave index (GWI), and an index of the rate of acceleration in temperature (GDDjerk). The GWI was calculated from MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite imagery and GDDjerk from gridded temperature data using products from the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS). To predict the timing of arrival at stopover and breeding sites, we used four years (2008-2011) of tracking data from 12 GPS-tagged barnacle geese, a long-distance herbivorous migrant, wintering in the Netherlands, breeding in the Russian Arctic. The stopover and breeding sites for these birds were identified and the relations between date of arrival with the date of 50% GWI and date of peak GDDjerk at each site were analyzed using mixed effect linear regression. A cross-validation method was used to compare the predictive accuracy of the GWI and GDDjerk indices. Significant relationships were found between the arrival dates at the stopover and breeding sites for the dates of 50% GWI as well as the peak GDDjerk (p < 0.01). The goose arrival dates at both stopover and breeding sites were predicted more accurately using GWI (R 2 cv = 0.68, RMSD cv = 5.9 and R 2 cv = 0.71, RMSD cv = 3.9 for stopover and breeding sites, respectively) than GDDjerk. The GDDjerk returned a lower accuracy for prediction of goose arrival dates at stopover ( R 2 cv = 0.45, RMSD cv = 7.79) and breeding sites (R 2 cv = 0.55, RMSD cv = 4.93). The positive correlation between the absolute residual values of the GDDjerk model and distance to the breeding sites showed that this index is highly sensitive to latitude. This study demonstrates that the satellite-derived green wave index (GWI) can accurately predict the timing of goose migration, irrespective of latitude and therefore is suggested as a reliable green wave index for predicting the timing of avian herbivores spring migration.

Potential for an Arctic‐breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

“…Migrants such as birds need time to prepare for their migration, and they have to time their journey based on cues at their departure site, that may be far away from the Arctic . The asynchronous advance of spring phenology between temperate wintering areas and Arctic-breeding grounds could severely impair their ability to advance their spring arrival (Klaassen, Hoye, Nolet, & Buttemer, 2012;K€ olzsch et al, 2015). As reproductive success is largely determined by the timing of spring arrival (Møller, 1994;Sedinger & Flint, 1991), changes in spring arrival may have considerable effects on individual fitness and eventually on population dynamics Møller, Rubolini, & Lehikoinen, 2008;Saino et al, 2011).…”

“…These birds build up their reserves during the early stages of migration, and like other migratory animals follow a 'green wave' of successive peaks in food availability (spring growth of forage plants) along their migratory route (Bischof et al, 2012;Shariatinajafabadi et al, 2014;Thorup et al, 2017;van der Graaf, Stahl, Klimkowska, Bakker, & Drent, 2006). By eventually overtaking this green wave, they can arrive and start breeding at their Arctic-breeding site before the peak in local food abundance, from which the goslings can then benefit after hatching (K€ olzsch et al, 2015;Si et al, 2015).…”

Migration timing and stopover selection for barnacle geese Branta leucopsis

“…In total 30 full data tracks for 12 individuals of the Russian population (2008)(2009)(2010)(2011), 20 full data tracks for 18 individuals of the Svalbard population (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011) and 7 full data tracks for 7 individuals of the Greenland population (2008)(2009)(2010) were collected during spring migration (Table 5.1). The barnacle goose tracking data has been stored in Movebank (www.movebank.org: Russian population: ''Migration timing in barnacle geese (Barents Sea), data from Kölzsch et al 2015 andShariatinajafabadi et al 2014'', DOI:10.5441/001/1.ps244r11 (ii) Svalbard population: ''Migration timing in barnacle geese (Svalbard), data from Kölzsch et al 2015 andShariatinajafabadi et al 2014'', DOI:10.5441 For each GPS track, stopover sites were defined as an area where the geese would remain within a radius of 30 km for at least 48 h (for more information see Shariati-Najafabadi et al, 2015). In total, 64 stopover sites were identified along the Russian flyway (2008)(2009)(2010)(2011), 32 along the Svalbard flyway (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011), and 14 along the Greenland flyway (2008)(2009)(2010) for 12, 18 and 7 geese, respectively, during the spring migration (see Table 5.1 and Figure 5.1).…”

“…Study involved extracting site elevation from a digital elevation model (DEM) generated by Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010) at 7.5-arcsecond (225 meters) resolution. The greenness factor, which is referred to as the satellite-derived "green wave index" (GWI) (Shariatinajafabadi et al, 2014) was calculated from the MODIS 16-day composite NDVI dataset (MOD13A2) with a 1 km spatial resolution for the period from 2006 to 2011 (Beck et al, 2008;Huete et al, 2002;Shariati-Najafabadi et al, 2015). In addition, the study analysis included, extracting the land cover types (i.e.…”

“…Accordingly, it is assumed that the movements of migratory herbivores during spring migration are linked to the green wave of plant phenology (Owen, 1980). Using satellite-NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) time series, Shariati-Najafabadi et al (2015) have indicated that the arrival date of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) at stopover sites strongly correlated with the "green wave" of vegetation development. Hupp et al (2001) also showed that temporal changes in snow cover affect the spatial and temporal distribution of snow goose (Anser caerulescens) during spring migration.…”