Scale dependency of pseudo-absences selection and uncertainty in climate scenarios matter when assessing potential distribution of a rare poppy plant Meconopsis punicea Maxim. under a warming climate

Li, Zhongrong; Zhu, Zhongfu; Wu, Yan

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01353

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Careful methodological approaches are important during SDM development stages [ 98 ]. For example, we addressed important criteria related to spatial extent considerations [ 39 ], ecologically relevant occurrence thinning [ 83 ] and pseudo absence parametrization [ 86 , 88 ], predictor selection [ 39 , 90 , 98 , 99 ], training and testing data partitioning and calibration [ 94 ], and ensemble modeling and evaluation [ 44 , 81 ]. Part of our predictor selection process included using a priori information from expertise and relevant literature [ 92 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used the spThin package [ 83 ] to delimit occurrences to 1/km 2 separately for each species ( Table 1 ; [ 84 ]); this scale corresponded to the environmental layers. We created 1,000 randomly distributed pseudo-absences, i.e., background points representing available environment [ 85 , 86 ], per modeling run. Thickening the number of background points greater than presence points has performed well in SDMs [ 87 ], especially when taxa have limited sample size [ 88 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

Blais,

Koprowski

2024

PLoS ONE

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An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)—an important riparian predator guild—in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

Blais,

Koprowski

2024

PLoS ONE

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“…For the remaining 30%, we used an evaluation dataset (a combination of the systematic datasets MHB, BDM, and MHBBDM) with high precision geography identification (Table 1) from the similar study area to evaluate the models (Edwards Jr et al, 2006;Graham et al, 2008;Hallman and Robinson, 2020). For model evaluations, we used several indices such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC; Jiménez-Valverde, 2012;Fernandes et al, 2019), the true skills statistic (TSS; Allouche et al, 2006;Fernandes et al, 2019), and Cohen's Kappa Statistic (KAPPA; Cohen, 1960;Fernandes et al, 2019) (Li et al, 2020;Smeraldo et al, 2021).…”

Section: Step 1: Initial Evaluation Of Predictive Accuracy Of Eight B...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A data-integration approach to correct sampling bias in species distribution models using multiple datasets of breeding birds in the Swiss Alps

Tehrani

Naimi

Jaboyedoff

2022

Ecological Informatics

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“…This procedure was repeated 10 times, and the mean values of sensitivity, specificity, kappa and AUC in DIVA-GIS 7.5 were used to determine the models' accuracy. BIOCLIM has been used in various research, including species surveys, environmental preparation, invasive plant or animal risk assessment, historical distribution reconstruction and climate change impact assessments [32,33,66,67].…”

Section: Modeling Procedures and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bioclimatic Suitability of Actual and Potential Cultivation Areas for Jacaranda mimosifolia in Chinese Cities

Chun-ping

Zhang

Jim

et al. 2021

Forests

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Jacaranda mimosifolia is regarded as a prized ornamental tree in the urban landscape with attractive, abundant and long-lasting violet-colored flowers and graceful tree form. It has been widely cultivated in recent years in many Chinese cities. However, the lack of scientific and practical guidance to cultivate the exotic species has brought about planting failures in some areas, incurring substantial economic losses and landscape decline. A comprehensive understanding of the current spatial pattern and climatic conditions of J. mimosifolia in China can inform species choice, planting and management. We collected data on the geographical coordinates of 257 planting cities and acquired additional information from the literature and field surveys. The limiting factors for cultivation were investigated using principal component analysis (PCA) of 19 bioclimatic parameters of the sampled sites. The potentially suitable habitats were predicted by BIOCLIM modeling using eight selected ecological-important climatic parameters. We found that the present cultivated areas were focused in the low-altitude parts of the subtropical zone, mainly covering the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. The PCA results indicated that temperature was the clinching determinant of the current cultivation patterns, especially annual mean temperature, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. Moisture was a necessary but not critical secondary factor. The predicting model for potential habitats was graded as “excellent” by objective validation measures. The findings can provide science-based evidence to plan the expansion of the biogeographical range of cultivation into hitherto unplanted cities and rationalize urban tree introduction and management practices.

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Scale dependency of pseudo-absences selection and uncertainty in climate scenarios matter when assessing potential distribution of a rare poppy plant Meconopsis punicea Maxim. under a warming climate

Cited by 4 publications

References 46 publications

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

A data-integration approach to correct sampling bias in species distribution models using multiple datasets of breeding birds in the Swiss Alps

Bioclimatic Suitability of Actual and Potential Cultivation Areas for Jacaranda mimosifolia in Chinese Cities

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