Scenario analysis: a review of methods and applications for engineering and environmental systems

Tourki, Yousra; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Linkov, Igor

doi:10.1007/s10669-013-9437-6

Cited by 44 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Van der Sluijs [30] found that even publically accessible numerical models are based on hundreds of implicit (internal) assumptions and modeling, as well as simulation decisions that are often only partially documented or inaccessible for externals. 4 Thus, even those numerical simulation modeling results that are traceable in theory often are not so in practice, at least not to externals and to those who are not modeling experts.…”

Section: Traceability Of Integrated Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consistency of scenarios is also discussed in terms of 'coherence', 'plausibility', 'logics', 'realism', or 'compatibility' [4]. Scenario literature shows that consistency has several functions.…”

Section: A Principle Of Scenario Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is a substitute for empirical validation, which is not possible and not appropriate with respect to scenarios because their object is not accessible in the present and because they do not claim to be or to become true. As a scenario construction principle, consistency is a heuristic that forces the scenario builder to reflect how 'bits and pieces' are brought together to form scenarios [4]. Consistency is considered a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a scenario to be plausible [3].…”

Section: A Principle Of Scenario Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…7 Nevertheless, in modeling, not all problems have pure analytical solutions but especially simulation is often based on numerical approximation, too. 8 An overview on different consistency scales (and different underlying consistency understandings) is presented in Tourki, Keisler and Linkov [4]. 9 A summary of this critique can be found in O'Mahony [16].…”

Section: Consistency Of Integrated Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…How to measure and assess scenario quality still is a contested question. Although several proposals and lists of criteria have been circulating for decades (e.g., [1][2][3]), these criteria are not consensual, and often are only weakly defined [4,5]. In scenario construction and usage, actors and methods from various traditions and social systems-from academia and practice -come together [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios

Kosow

2015

Eur J Futures Res

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This paper proposes two criteria to assess and compare the quality of (integrated) scenarios, namely scenario traceability and scenario consistency. From a futures research perspective, both are identified as being central challenges to scenario quality. Traceability is a recognized standard of scenario communication but difficult to achieve in practice. Consistency, simultaneously a construction principle and a constitutive element of scenarios, is not easy to accomplish either. Integrated scenario methodologies, i.e., those approaches combining, e.g., 'story and simulation' (SAS), are especially challenged by both issues. In this paper, scenario traceability and scenario consistency are more precisely defined and operationalized to allow for qualitative measurement, assessment and comparisons of different (integrated) scenario methodologies and their resulting socioenvironmental scenarios. The criteria are applied empirically to new forms of integrated scenario methodologies. They serve to analyze two explorative case studies combining the systematic yet qualitative cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) with simulation. The criteria allow illuminating whether and on what dimensions and levels these new forms of integrated scenario methodologies do (or do not) support scenario consistency and scenario traceability. The empirical analysis shows that new integrated scenario methodologies combining CIB with numerical simulation present some new answers to the traceability and consistency challenges of classical SAS approaches. The application suggests that the two criteria are appropriate and useful for assessing scenario quality from an academic perspective. Still, further research is needed to understand the relation of traceability and consistency to additional quality criteria that influence the practical usefulness of scenarios from a policy advice-oriented perspective.

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Section: Traceability Of Integrated Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Principle Of Scenario Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Principle Of Scenario Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Consistency Of Integrated Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios

Kosow

2015

Eur J Futures Res

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A sustainable trajectory for the 2030 Agenda: Targeting historical lock‐ins to accelerate progress on all SDGs

Carlsen,

Weitz,

Petrova

et al. 2024

Sustainable Development

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The 2030 Agenda states that the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) make parts of an indivisible whole, and research on SDG implementation highlights how managing goal interactions—synergies and trade‐offs—is key for implementation to be successful. Here, we present an empirically based and transparent method for developing “consistent scenarios” that identifies which SDGs will be unattainable if historical patterns of interaction between SDGs are maintained. Using historical data on SDG indicators and correlation analysis together with cross‐impact balance analysis, we identify such scenarios for a set of high‐ to low‐income countries. Finding no consistent scenario where progress can be made on all 17 SDGs for any of the countries, our findings demonstrate the importance of policies that target interactions and resolve trade‐offs rather than individual goals to unlock a sustainable future trajectory. This reflects what was novel about the SDGs as a framework for global development; that the goals are indivisible and achieving them all require systemic changes that alter how social and economic processes interact with the environment.

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Characterizing integration challenges in mission engineering to form solution strategies

Hernández

Pollman

2022

Systems Engineering

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This paper presents a systematic approach to characterize integration challenges when implementing mission engineering and discusses some specific techniques to address these issues. With the introduction of mission engineering in the DOD science and technology lexicon, integration assumes a new dimension beyond the system product level. First, the authors offer a more precise definition of integration that focuses on incorporating a new technology or military capability into an existing organization's infrastructure. Using a collection of system integration literature and a set of examples, the authors define major problem areas regarding integration. Analyses of these issues present opportunities to identify specific methods to avoid or mitigate them. The resultant process is a foundation for mission engineering practitioners to plan successful integration of a new system. Acceptance of these procedures in the mission engineering community may lead to inclusion as standard practices in the DOD Mission Engineering Guide.

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Scenario analysis: a review of methods and applications for engineering and environmental systems

Cited by 44 publications

References 45 publications

New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios

New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios

A sustainable trajectory for the 2030 Agenda: Targeting historical lock‐ins to accelerate progress on all SDGs

Characterizing integration challenges in mission engineering to form solution strategies

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