Scenario Analysis of Emergency in Civil Aviation Airports Based on the Pressure- State-Response Model and Bayesian Network

Abstract

The emergency response capability of civil aviation airports is the core to ensure the efficient handling of civil aviation emergencies. The dynamic characterization of the multi-scenario evolution paths of emergencies in civil aviation airports and quantitative targeted evaluation have become the study foci urgently needed to be solved by the current academic circles and airport departments for emergency management. To clarify the emergency mechanism, evolution mechanism, and multi-scenario evolution paths, this study first constructed the pressure-state-response (PSR) network expression of emergency scenario evolution in civil aviation airports. Then, the evolution path of airport emergency scenarios and the probability of different evolution scenarios were evaluated on the basis of the PSR model and Bayesian network (BN). Lastly, the specific process of the analysis method for emergency scenarios based on PSR and BN was demonstrated in consideration of emergency rescue drills in civil aviation airports as example. Results show that different emergency response measures are adopted for the critical scenarios of emergencies, and the development and evolution paths of emergency scenarios completely differ. The PSR-BN model for emergency scenario analysis can realize the reasoning process of combining the qualitative and quantitative scenarios of the dynamic evolution of civil aviation emergencies. It can comprehensively and systematically analyse the evolution of emergency scenarios in civil aviation airports, prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the analysis method, and effectively compensate for the shortcomings in the static analysis of emergency events. The model provides reference for the emergency analysis of civil aviation airports.

Case Review: The Action Plan for the Chicago Center Fire Accident: The Role of Leadership in Emergency Response

“…Bartulović and Steiner (2020) propose the utilization of predictive analytics to ensure the safety of management systems in organizations concerning aviation. Meng et al (2020) state that the foundation of the contingency plan in emergency management should be the risk management system followed by prevention and control of the potential hazards. As a result, the facility's safety may improve by digitalizing the existing frameworks and digital security systems (Kuusisto & Kuusisto, 2019).…”

“…A contingency plan is a regulated list of strictly followed directions in an emergency or a disaster. FAA's Air Traffic Organization (ATO) is the structure that should provide safe air navigation and develop contingency plans (Meng et al, 2020;DOT OIG, 2015). However, after the Chicago Center Fire emergency, FAA discarded the contingency plan of the named organization due to the identified flaws in the design (DOT OIG, 2015).…”

“…Furthermore, the communication between the facilities concerning air traffic is limited by the equipment and the incompetent location of the communication systems (Kuusisto & Kuusisto, 2019;DOT OIG, 2015). Some existing technologies must meet the industry's requirements, namely, radar surveillance devices and fire suppression systems (Meng et al, 2020;Kuusisto & Kuusisto, 2019;DOT OIG, 2015). In addition, the emergency has also raised concerns regarding automation frameworks and flight scheduling (DOT OIG, 2015).…”