Scenario-Based Risk Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Using Slope Displacement, PGA, and Population Density in the Guyuan Region, China

Abstract

Mega-earthquakes that occur in mountainous areas of densely populated cities are particularly catastrophic, triggering large landslides, destroying more buildings, and usually resulting in significant death tolls. In this paper, earthquake scenarios in the Guyuan Region of China are used as an example to study earthquake disaster risk assessment and a method of assessment is proposed that uses the peak ground acceleration (PGA), landslides triggered by the earthquake, and the effects on the population. The method is used to develop scenarios for earthquake disaster risk assessment along the Haiyuan and Liupanshan Faults for earthquake magnitudes of Ms 7.0, 7.5, 8.0, and 8.5 triggered by one of the two faults. The quantitative earthquake disaster risk maps in the study area were developed by integrating the values of the at-risk elements for the earthquake factor, population, and landslide hazard. According to the model results, the high-hazard zone was mainly located in the severely affected areas along the faults and on the western side of the faults. These results can be useful for emergency preparation planning, response plans, and resource assessment.

Landslide Hazard Assessments of A Potential Earthquake-triggered in Central Taiwan Using Newmark's Model with the Stochastic Semi-Empirical Technique

“…logDn = 1.46logIa -6.642logAc + 1.546 ± 0.409 (10) I a = 2π g ∫ A cc (t) 2 dt tr 0 (11) where Acc(t) is computed by the proposed method described in section 2.2. With the digital terrain model and the geologic data [20] cooperating with the rock hardness classification [13] of Nantou County, the critical accelerations Ac distributed around the mountainous regions in Nantou County can be estimated well. Employing eq.…”

“…It is obvious that the critical acceleration Ac is an important parameter to determine the Dn value. Given parameters for different lithologies classified by rock hardness as shown in [13] to eq. ( 1)-( 2), the Ac value can be calculated.…”

“…Employing two scenarios of earthquakes with magnitudes Ms 7.0 and Ms 8.0, Liu, et al [12] tried to access successfully the earthquake disasters including landslides and traffic damage in the Tianshui area, China. Zhuang, et al [13] assess the earthquake disaster that occurred in the Guyuan region, China by the scenario method. In this study, to overcome the problem without sufficient seismic recordings of an earthquake, we firstly combine the semi-empirical method with Newmark's model to evaluate the validities of Dn corresponding landslides triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (M w 7.6) and 2013 Nantou earthquake (M w 6.2) respectively.…”

Mitigation of the Wonorejo active fault on the Probolinggo-Banyuwangi toll road

“…This variable is also a factor in the relationship between the economy and the amount of infrastructure and the number of buildings in the region. Both factors reflect the earthquake-associated hazard and all elements at risk [4].…”

Hazard assessment modeling and software development of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, China

“…To address the issue that the current spatial prediction of coseismic landslides is not timely enough for practical application, Ma et al (2020) However, it should be noted that the Newmark model's prediction results are strongly influenced by the input parameters (Dreyfus et al, 2013), and obtaining relatively reasonable geotechnical parameters for a large area is extremely difficult (Wang et al, 2016;Zhuang et al, 2019). As a result, the accuracy of prediction results based on the Newmark model is relatively low, and it cannot meet the needs of emergency assessment (Ma and Xu, 2019b).…”