Scenario-based robustness assessment of building system life cycle performance

Does context matter? Robust building retrofit decision-making for decarbonization across Europe

“…[29], which is confirmed in Ref. [15]. Nonetheless, other robustness metrics can be used if, for example, a highly optimistic or pessimistic viewpoint is needed [30][31][32].…”

“…One essential factor identified was the national grid electricity GHG intensity, where a factor of 30 was found between the highest and the lowest intensity. Other research on modeling choices in GHG emission calculations for building retrofits confirms the importance of the grid electricity mix and the assumed future electricity mix decarbonization [15] Also, seasonal grid mix variation [16], allocation methods of locally produced photovoltaic electricity [17] and biogenic carbon content of bio-based materials [18,19] are identified to influence LCA results significantly. Further, increasingly in the context of decarbonization, the importance of the material's embodied emissions is shifted into the focus of building LCA [20].…”

“…Further, in previous studies, we have compared retrofit design options for the Swiss context with scenarios on occupancy, climate, and decarbonization [15,31]. We found that decarbonization scenarios are especially relevant and that the heating system choice majorly affects robustness.…”

“…A retrofit should create a new state of a building that is effective over a long lifetime. The environmental impact assessment of building retrofits should thus consider the uncertainties of model inputs [15,21]. Notably, there are multiple uncertainties in the building operation phase.…”

“…Area It is generally suitable for decarbonization and climate change scenarios since their developments depend on political decisions and therefore belong to the field of deep uncertainty [15]. Compared to the probabilistic approach, it requires an additional step where the scenario results are transformed with a robustness metric [28].…”