Scenario generation: limitations and developments in cross-impact analysis

Mitchell, Robert B.; Tydeman, John; Curnow, Ray

doi:10.1016/0016-3287(77)90034-9

Cited by 23 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Although the benefits of using scenarios are clear, barriers have limited their widespread use, especially in large-scale problems with multidimensional stakeholders. These barriers have been discussed in some studies (such as IPBES, 2016; Bradfield, 2008; Mitchell et al , 1977; Amara, 1981). Here crucial barriers are noted: Ignorance: lack of understanding about the use and contributions of scenarios in the decision-making process (i.e.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global scenarios under crises: the case of post COVID-19 era

Hafezi¹,

Asemi

2022

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Purpose COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved that development biased to economic issues without considering other factors such as social and environmental is not sustainable, and it can even be the source of the crisis. This paper aims to discover plausible alternative futures at the macrolevel where nations, businesses and societies can change routines, and approach to a better peaceful future. Design/methodology/approach To accomplish this, trends emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic are studied and some uncertainties are identified. At the intersections of uncertainties, scenarios are shaped based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. GBN helps to draw macrolevel images about plausible futures. The main uncertainties rose from three different but interconnected natures including: approach to the globalization (social perspective), approach to the concept of value (business perspective) and approach to the governance (states/governance perspective). Each uncertainty can take two extreme alternatives; consequently, eight scenario spaces with different probability are formed by the intersection of alternatives. Then the most favorable scenario is introduced and strategies are proposed to achieve a better future. Findings In the current paradigm in which countries will sacrifice the environment for economic growth in the race to rapidly rebuild their economy, concerns for the post-COVID-19 will continue to mount. While, in the favorable scenario, value creation is sought in sustainable development. This means deviation from a favorable scenario to achieve short-term goals is completely predictable. Although we have learned that the COVID-19 pandemic is controllable and manageable as time goes by, but no effort or commitment has been seen in the governments to eradicate the COVID-19 sources (at least till today). Originality/value The main originality of this research appeared in the practical aspect. This paper analyzes and projects scenarios at the global level and studies challenges that societies, governments and businesses are facing in the modern world with biased development paradigms. Moreover, different viewpoints to deal with global crisis are assessed and criticized.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global scenarios under crises: the case of post COVID-19 era

Hafezi¹,

Asemi

2022

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“…Dalkey presents conditions for computing the occurrence probabilities of the first-and second-order [17]. To compute the higher-order probabilities, Duperring and Godet suggest a quadratic programming method [18] and Mitchell provides a linear programming method [19]. Enzer uses CIA to forecast future technologies based on a Delphi survey.…”

Section: Cross Impact Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

Thorleuchter

Poel

Prinzie

2010

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified. A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field 'defence' is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology has the potential to generate useful insights for government organizations to help direct technology investments

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“…Such methodologies bring together and synthesise multiple views and perspectives based on the personal, and hence subjective, opinions and judgements of those involved [42]. Scenario planning based on active consultation [50], brainstorming [30] and engagement of actors [60,63], therefore, embraces multiple ethical, philosophical and conceptual stances and values.…”

Section: Policy Aspirations and Counterfactual Thinking As A Means Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

A future for small business? Prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning

Atherton

2005

Futures

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Scenario generation: limitations and developments in cross-impact analysis

Cited by 23 publications

References 8 publications

Global scenarios under crises: the case of post COVID-19 era

Global scenarios under crises: the case of post COVID-19 era

A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

A future for small business? Prospective scenarios for the development of the economy based on current policy thinking and counterfactual reasoning

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