Scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: requirements, benefits and inhibitors

Meyerowitz, Danielle; Lew, Charlene; Svensson, Göran

doi:10.1108/fs-04-2018-0036

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Moreover, strategic planning tools offer a structured framework for decisionmaking during the transition process, aiding in objective identification, goal setting, and action planning (Meyerowitz et al, 2018). They keep decision-makers focused on the strategic direction and facilitate informed choices.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Mediating Role of Transition Management in the Relationship of Strategic Planning Systems and Sustainable Urban Road Infrastructure Development among Town Councils in Uganda

Wanume,

Machuki,

Njihia

et al. 2023

AJIBM

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As cities strive to create sustainable road infrastructure, the integration of strategic planning systems and transition management becomes imperative in guiding the complex transformation process and aligning efforts towards sustainable outcomes. This study explores the mediating role of transition management in the relationship between strategic planning systems and sustainable urban road infrastructure development. The study utilized a descriptive cross-sectional survey design. The target population consisted of Town councils in Uganda. Data was collected through a structured questionnaire using the drop and pick later method, and the mediation effect was evaluated using path analysis. The findings indicate that transition management plays a partial mediating role in the relationship between strategic planning systems and sustainable urban road infrastructure development among Town councils in Uganda (path coefficient = .435). The study concludes that strategic planning systems impact sustainable urban road infrastructure through transition management, advocating participatory planning. Since diverse actors are involved, effective stakeholder knowledge sharing is vital for collective problem-solving and sustainable urban road development.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Mediating Role of Transition Management in the Relationship of Strategic Planning Systems and Sustainable Urban Road Infrastructure Development among Town Councils in Uganda

Wanume,

Machuki,

Njihia

et al. 2023

AJIBM

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“…They define scenarios as the sequences of hypothetical events designed to provide insights for decision-making process (Schwartz, 2011). Schwartz and van der Heijden’s framework rely on the judgment, knowledge, credibility and communication skills of scenario team experts (Meyerowitz et al , 2018). It identifies key drivers, trends, barriers and ranks them by their importance and uncertainty.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under domination of oil and gas: future scenarios of renewable energy development in Iran

Fartash

Ghorbani

2022

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Purpose Scenario planning is a useful approach that helps policymakers to better understand the complexity and uncertainties that lie in the future and to choose the right policy mix to support the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. In this regard, this paper aims to present renewable energy (RE) development scenarios in Iran in the horizon of 2030. Design/methodology/approach Following the intuitive logic school and the Global Business Network model, the authors identified seven driving forces, according to the expert’s judgment, by brainstorming techniques which influence REs development in the horizon of 2030. By prioritizing driving forces based on their importance and uncertainty, “sustainable and green economy” and “emerging technology development” are the most instrumental uncertainties and the authors formed a two-axis scenario matrix with each representing an axis. Findings The results suggest four main scenarios of “Transition to Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Productivity with Black Gold” and “Desperation with Black Gold.” They include a wide range of possible situations of energy basket in the future ranging from dominance of fossil fuels to dominance of REs. The “Productivity with Black Gold” and the “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold” are the most probable scenarios of RE development by 2030 in Iran. Originality/value This paper indicates that the dominance of oil and gas resources would impede or at least slow down the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. Although the economic and environmental potentials and the inevitability of REs are well-understood, path dependence created by fossil fuels in Iran’s energy regime, either partially or fully, hinders the widespread development of REs which is the case in other resource-based countries as well.

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“…Due to the challenges that leaders face in today's context, it is necessary to have a tool that helps leaders make sense of the unknown future (Meyerowitz, 2018). According to Kahn and Andrew Wiener (1967), scenario planning is considered a hypothetical sequence of events that lead to a possible future situation.…”

Section: Scenario Planning For Times Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the pandemic brought several constraints to small businesses, the contribution of making scenarios will benefit organizations in the increased business agility. The mitigation of risks, creating business robustness, helping the buildup of future orientation, enhancing the participation of new insights in business strategy, and shifting e³ -Revista de Economia, Empresas e Empreendedores na CPLP | V-N-Check for Updates leadership thinking (Meyerowitz, 2018). Later, it was added to the argument that participation in such exercises enhances implementation and commitment (Wright et al, 2019).…”

Section: Scenario Planning For Times Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Planning for a Post-Pandemic Era in Small Businesses: A Dynamic Capability Perspective

Gandrita

Costa

2023

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The COVID-19 crisis has fundamentally transformed the way we live our lives and how organizations work. The business sector needed to understand what is the better approach to continue their activity, this leads to formulating and forecasting different scenarios associated with the impact of the pandemic on its suppliers, customers, and employees. This paper aims to investigate possible scenarios in small businesses in a post- pandemic era and how small businesses are preparing for the return of their activity maintenance. In addition, a theoretical contribution throughout dynamic capabilities perspective. An exploratory study with in-depth inquiries based on a quantitative methodology with small business owners as a sample identifying possible scenarios and what is the future direction of small businesses. Also, a bibliometric analysis was applied and focused on scenario planning, strategy, post-pandemic, and dynamic capabilities. Indexed journals were used to validate the study and VOSviewer software to perform a keyword analysis on co-occurrence and counting. A scenario planning framework for small businesses gives an understanding of what could be the possible outlines for the organization and acquire a better comprehension of what strategies can be used as a supplement to surpass the recent crisis. For last, the conceptualization of the theme relates to dynamic capabilities, scenarios, and the behaviour of small businesses.

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Scenario-planning in strategic decision-making: requirements, benefits and inhibitors

Cited by 12 publications

References 45 publications

The Mediating Role of Transition Management in the Relationship of Strategic Planning Systems and Sustainable Urban Road Infrastructure Development among Town Councils in Uganda

The Mediating Role of Transition Management in the Relationship of Strategic Planning Systems and Sustainable Urban Road Infrastructure Development among Town Councils in Uganda

Under domination of oil and gas: future scenarios of renewable energy development in Iran

Scenario Planning for a Post-Pandemic Era in Small Businesses: A Dynamic Capability Perspective

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