Scenario planning to leap-frog the Sustainable Development Goals: An adaptation pathways approach

Butler, James; Bohensky, Erin; Suadnya, Wayan; Yanuartati, Y.; Handayani, Tarningsih; Habibi, Putrawan; Puspadi, Ketut; Skewes, Tim; Wise, Russ; Suharto, I.; Park, Sarah; Sutaryono, Yusuf Akhyar

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2015.11.003

Cited by 95 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…These eight cases were represented by 16 documents, with several referencing a single AP planning case. For example, Butler et al (2014Butler et al ( , 2015Butler et al ( , 2016aButler et al ( , 2016c, Butler (2016b), Skewes et al (2016) and Wise et al (2016) are all drawn from a single case of AP planning for livelihoods in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia. Three by Barnett et al (2011Barnett et al ( , 2014aBarnett et al ( , 2014b refer to AP planning for a coastal area in Victoria Australia, and two by Campos et al (2016aCampos et al ( , 2016b relate to a case of AP planning for a coastal area in Portugal.…”

Section: Identified Cases Of Participatory Ap Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, in the Butler et al case, the research team first conducted a stakeholder analysis to identify and prioritise 30-40 individuals with responsibility for and knowledge of community development and NRM, with prioritisation of female stakeholders. Then, aiming to 'to mitigate potential power asymmetries', held a series of three different workshop types (Butler et al 2016c). The first involved a provinciallevel workshop with representatives of national and provincial governments, and NGOs, as well as Australian and Indonesian biophysical and social scientists to identify relative vulnerabilities of sub-districts.…”

Section: Engaging Diverse Voicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Barnett et al (2014aBarnett et al ( , 2014b reviewed relevant literature and undertook interviews with policy practitioners and community members. In contrast, Butler et al (2016aButler et al ( , 2016c framed the adaptation problem as one of livelihood by using expert elicitation to develop a typology of rural sub-districts based on the ecosystem goods and services underpinning livelihoods. Participatory workshops in each subdistrict then sought to engage local stakeholders in 'ground-truthing' those assessments .…”

Section: Framing the Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Engaging with uncertainty and ambiguity through participatory ‘Adaptive Pathways’ approaches: scoping the literature

Bosomworth

Gaillard

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Climate change adaptation planning demands decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity. Adaptive Pathways (AP) planning is receiving increased attention as a method to guide adaptation planning in the face of uncertainties. The approach has been most extensively developed and applied in large, well-funded contexts such as the Thames Barrier and Dutch Delta program. However, the development of AP planning has focused much less on the parallel need for engaging with the challenge of ambiguity-that there are diverse, sometimes contending, knowledges, values, and stakes involved. A more nascent body of work has been exploring ways of engaging with both the uncertainties and ambiguities of adaptation through various participatory approaches to AP planning. This paper sought to synthesise insights from this emerging work. Examining the peer-reviewed and grey literature identified eight cases from four countries across five different policy issues that provided details of how they approached diverse participation. Analysis of this small suite of cases provided some key insights for those seeking to use participatory approaches to AP planning to engage with the inherent uncertainties and (arguably necessary) ambiguities of adaptation. The paper concludes with a call for greater publication of details regarding how participatory approaches to methods such as AP planning have been undertaken not just what was undertaken.

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Section: Identified Cases Of Participatory Ap Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Engaging Diverse Voicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Framing the Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Engaging with uncertainty and ambiguity through participatory ‘Adaptive Pathways’ approaches: scoping the literature

Bosomworth

Gaillard

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Thus, we thought there must be a way to fill this gap. Though several studies linking SDGs and foresight have been conducted, it is still not enough, as for instance van der Hel states [12], focusing on strategies employed by science institutions as well as Butler [13], stating the lack of examples of transformative innovations, which linked human and environmental outcomes. Therefore, we aim to develop a new proposal that effectively synthesizes the two.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A proposal of a new foresight platform considering of sustainable development goals

2018

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The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) has conducted foresight activities for decades. In recent years, the speed of social change has increased and the complexity in politics and economics has also increased. As such, it has become difficult to look forward appropriate in a timely manner using only conventional methods, and thus the development of various methods is encouraged. Conversely, the formation of a sustainable society faces many difficulties on the international front and many goals for global issues have been set. However, efforts and results for sustainable development are not necessarily desirable. In this study, we examined whether we could effectively solve social problems by combining the development of a foresight approach with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). First, we reviewed the concepts of sustainable development. Next, we examined the target of SDGs appropriately to convert our foresight activities. Finally, we propose a future public platform (FPP) for scenario planning in foresight. As a result, we found the importance of considering the SDGs in foresight. We also examined the concept of sustainable development, considering how to integrate the SDGs into foresight, and propose the FPP with SDGs. This FPP effectively involves five SDG targets and appears to be highly executable. Though the system of FPP has a certain difficulty, we could exchange information among experts who are studying SDGs and foresight. Thus, as a case study of connections between foresight and SDGs, it would be helpful for other countries.

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“…Scenario planning provides a systematic approach for assessing complex situations under probable future conditions, taking into account uncertainty and unexpected outcomes, assessing potential impacts of alternative management options (Peterson et al 2003;Imong et al 2016;Mitchell et al 2016), and potentially identify maladaptation (Butler et al 2016). …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Protected area management under climate change: A framework for decision making

Tanner-McAllister¹

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There are over 200,000 protected areas today conserving about 15.4% of the world's terrestrial and inland waters, and around 3.4% of the oceans (Juffe-Bignoli et al. 2014). They provide an effective means of supporting conservation of ecological, cultural and social values. However, they experience a range of threats that park managers must deal with, and now face a new suite of impacts from anthropogenic climate change. Current protected area management approaches may not be adequate to conserve park values as they become more threatened as climate alters because parks were originally developed and managed with the notion of static boundaries with the aim of maintaining current values. Many existing strategies and approaches do not necessarily answer the questions managers need for practical application day to day management as available tools are either lacking in data or very specialised, making them impractical for natural resource managers with limited expertise. There is a need for a methodology and guidelines to assist protected area managers in understanding how their parks and reserves will respond to future climate change so they can make informed decisions and devise possible management strategies.The aim of this research was to investigate approaches to managing climate change impacts on protected areas through understanding and addressing management and planning at the park level.Three key points are addressed to accomplish this, understanding socio-ecological attributes for effective park planning and management, understanding park climate change impacts, and incorporating these into decision making and adaptive management of protected areas. This was applied to four of Queensland's Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage listed protected areas, Springbrook, Lamington, Mount Barney and Main Range National Parks.Most research and planning for climate change is undertaken at a higher strategic level (i.e. regional level and above) with a lack of implementation on-park. Other research and planning effort has been focused on 'off-reserve' strategies to complement and support protected areas on a regional scale. Implementation of socio-ecological values and perceptions in park management are only beginning to occur, which is now recognised as an important factor in adaptive management for protected areas to increase effective management. A climate change adaptation management framework was developed (Chapter 2) to strengthen the relationships between climate change science and the socio-ecological drivers, and on-park management. It sets out the context of the situation to clarify the protected area system's attributes and how they inter-relate. It presents a decision making framework based on a set of strategies aimed at adapting on-park management to The community, protected area neighbours and park managers in the Scenic Rim had a good understanding of climate change and its likely impacts and were concerned about the natural environment. Managers' perceptions were largely aligned wi...

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Scenario planning to leap-frog the Sustainable Development Goals: An adaptation pathways approach

Cited by 95 publications

References 62 publications

Engaging with uncertainty and ambiguity through participatory ‘Adaptive Pathways’ approaches: scoping the literature

Engaging with uncertainty and ambiguity through participatory ‘Adaptive Pathways’ approaches: scoping the literature

A proposal of a new foresight platform considering of sustainable development goals

Protected area management under climate change: A framework for decision making

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