Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Birkmann, Joern; Cutter, Susan L.; Rothman, Dale S.; Welle, Torsten; Garschagen, Matthias; Ruijven, Bas van; O’Neill, Brian C.; Preston, Benjamin L.; Kienberger, Stefan; Cardona, Omar D.; Siagian, Tiodora Hadumaon; Hidayati, Deny; Setiadi, Neysa J.; Binder, Claudia R.; Hughes, Barry B.; Pulwarty, Roger S.

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2

Cited by 115 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…He concluded that this trend would exacerbate negative impacts to already stressed human livelihoods and biodiversity. Other supporting scholars with similar observations include Ahmed et al [4], Rowhani et al [8], Mongi et al [10], Mkonda [18], Kangalawe [20], Kangalawe and Lyimo [21], Yanda [28], and Birkmann et al [29], just to mention a few.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Are Rainfall and Temperature Really Changing? Farmer’s Perceptions, Meteorological Data, and Policy Implications in the Tanzanian Semi-Arid Zone

Mkonda

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:Although various climate models, statistical crop models and economic simulations have been established to determine the level of farmers' vulnerability, there has been little systematic assessment of farmers' perception towards climate change in association with meteorological analyses and policy implications in Tanzania. The results from this assessment will enhance the formation of robust policies that improve resilient livelihoods and the capacity to adapt to climate change and variability. This paper seeks to (i) reveal the farmers' perception on variation, change of rainfall, and temperature in the Tanzanian semi-arid area; (ii) depict meteorological evidence for the perceived rainfall and temperature changes; (iii) assess the policy perception and responses for the changing climate; and (iv) discuss the correlation between farmers' perception and meteorological data. Household surveys, informative interviews and discussions were employed during data collection. The Mann-Kendall Test and SPSS (version 20) were used for climate data analyses, while qualitative data were thematically analyzed. The results showed that from 1980 to 2015 the mean annual rainfall decreased ( R 2 = 0.21) while temperature increased (R 2 = 0.30). Even though majority farmers agreed with these results, they had not yet taken serious measures to curb the situation. Besides, Agricultural Policy has lightly addressed and enforced the implementations of adaptation strategies to reduce climate impacts and vulnerability. Thereby, creation of awareness and intensification of climate adaptation strategies is needed at both farm and policy level.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Are Rainfall and Temperature Really Changing? Farmer’s Perceptions, Meteorological Data, and Policy Implications in the Tanzanian Semi-Arid Zone

Mkonda

2017

Sustainability

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“…Aon (2012) andBEH (2012) presented global vulnerability maps (the WorldRiskIndex), and Cutter et al (2003) derived a social vulnerability index for the United States, but this did not include time-dependency. IPCC-SREX (2012, box 2-3) discussed vulnerability indices for the Americas, but these estimates are also static, and Preston et al (2011) andBirkmann (2013) gave extensive reviews of vulnerability mapping.…”

Section: Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change

2014

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Disasters such as floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts can have enormous implications for health, the environment and economic development. In this article, we address the question of how climate change might have influenced the impact of weather-related disasters. This relation is not straightforward, since disaster burden is not influenced by weather and climate events alone-other drivers are growth in population and wealth, and changes in vulnerability. We normalized disaster impacts, analyzed trends in the data and compared them with trends in extreme weather and climate events and vulnerability, following a 3 by 4 by 3 set-up, with three disaster burden categories, four regions and three extreme weather event categories. The trends in normalized disaster impacts show large differences between regions and weather event categories. Despite these variations, our overall conclusion is that the increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of increasing trends in disaster impacts. This holds for long-term trends in economic losses as well as the number of people affected. We also found similar, though more qualitative, results for the number of people killed; in all three cases, the role played by climate change cannot be excluded. Furthermore, we found that trends in historic vulnerability tend to be stable over time, despite adaptation measures taken by countries. Based on these findings, we derived disaster impact projections for the coming decades. We argue that projections beyond 2030 are too uncertain, not only due to unknown changes in vulnerability, but also due to increasing non-stationarities in normalization relations.

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“…Several new vulnerability indices have recently been developed, such as the indicators for susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity in the World Risk Index (WRI) (Birkmann et al 2011) and the Global Adaptation Index (GAIN: Global Adaptation Institute 2011) (see Table 1). In this regard it is important to note that some of these risk, vulnerability and adaptation index approaches use various indicators that are also applied in the SSPs and global impact models, hence it would be possible to explore more intensively the usefulness of scenarios in these vulnerability and risk assessments (see Birkmann et al 2013). Nevertheless, the above challenges remain relevant and the utility and legitimacy of such indices is still contentious (Barnett et al 2008;Hinkel 2011).…”

Section: The Use Of Socioeconomic Scenarios In Iav Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Levy²,

et al. 2013

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This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first Climatic Change (2014) 122:481-494 DOI 10.1007 This article is part of the Special Issue on "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research" edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos. provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

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Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Cited by 115 publications

References 21 publications

Are Rainfall and Temperature Really Changing? Farmer’s Perceptions, Meteorological Data, and Policy Implications in the Tanzanian Semi-Arid Zone

Are Rainfall and Temperature Really Changing? Farmer’s Perceptions, Meteorological Data, and Policy Implications in the Tanzanian Semi-Arid Zone

On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

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