Scenarios of Earthquake-Generated Tsunamis for the Italian Coast of the Adriatic Sea

Tiberti, Mara Monica; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Kastelic, Vanja; Piatanesi, A.; Valensise, Gianluca

doi:10.1007/978-3-0346-0057-6_8

Cited by 7 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…They find a low tsunami hazard in the northern Adriatic, increasing toward the south, though in most places only waves smaller than 1 m are expected. In the present study we find larger tsunami hazard along the southern Italian Adriatic coast than what is found by Tiberti et al [2008], most likely because that study does not consider tsunamis generated in the eastern Hellenic Arc, which is expected to be an important contributor to the tsunami hazard in that region. For the Marmara Sea, Hébert et al [2005] have studied a number of earthquake scenarios with magnitudes up to 7.6 along the North Anatolian Fault.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 83%

“…We find an annual probability of exceeding 1 m PCTA in Messina of 0.007, which indicates a higher hazard level than that found by Tinti et al [2005]. Tiberti et al [2008] study the tsunami hazard along the Italian Adriatic coastline through scenarios of tsunamis generated by most credible earthquakes in six source zones. They find a low tsunami hazard in the northern Adriatic, increasing toward the south, though in most places only waves smaller than 1 m are expected.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 46%

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Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea

Sørensen¹,

Spada²,

Babeyko³

et al. 2012

J. Geophys. Res.

139

119

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[1] Estimating the occurrence probability of natural disasters is critical for setting construction standards and, more generally, prioritizing risk mitigation efforts. Tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean region has traditionally been estimated by considering so-called "most credible" scenarios of tsunami impact for limited geographical regions, but little attention has been paid to the probability of any given scenario. We present here the first probabilistic estimate of earthquake-generated tsunami hazard for the entire Mediterranean Sea. We estimate the annual probability of exceeding a given tsunami amplitude at any coastal location in the region by applying a Monte Carlo based technique. Earthquake activity rates are estimated from the observed seismicity, and tsunami impact is derived from deterministic tsunami wave propagation scenarios. The highest hazard is in the eastern Mediterranean owing to earthquakes along the Hellenic Arc, but most of the Mediterranean coastline is prone to tsunami impact. Our method allows us to identify the main sources of tsunami hazard at any given location and to investigate the potential for issuing timely tsunami warnings. We find that the probability of a tsunami wave exceeding 1 m somewhere in the Mediterranean in the next 30 years is close to 100%. This underlines the urgent need for a tsunami warning system in the region.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 83%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 46%

Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean Sea

Sørensen¹,

Spada²,

Babeyko³

et al. 2012

J. Geophys. Res.

139

119

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In addition to these maps we have performed an approximation to the threat based on a classification of the levels of damage expected as a function of the wave height. We have followed the levels proposed by Tiberti et al (2008), which follow a three color coded classification similar to the one used by the "j apan Meteorological Agency" (http:// www.jrna.go.jp/en/tsunarni/). These levels classified the wave eleva tion in 0.5 m steps, dividing the threat as "Marine Threat" for maximum wave elevations between 0.05 m and 0.5 m; "Land Threat" for the range 0.5 m to 1 m; and "Severe Land Threat" for maximum wave elevations over 1 m. We have used the -1 0 m contour line from the bathymetry to obtain the expected maximum wave elevation in front of the coast.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios for earthquake-generated tsunamis on a complex tectonic area of diffuse deformation and low velocity: The Alboran Sea, Western Mediterranean

et al. 2011

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“…This bears important consequences in applications that require individual fault ruptures; the INGV sources must be split into sections of appropriate dimension consistent with the assigned earthquake magnitude. Examples on how this can be done are given in , Tiberti et al (2008), and Rotondi (2010).…”

Section: Seismogenic Source Behaviormentioning

confidence: 98%