Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen P.; Zhu, Zhiliang

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.008

Cited by 157 publications

(134 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…To develop LULC change scenarios that were logically consistent with SRES storylines, Sleeter et al (2012) used projected national LULC change data from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) (Strengers et al 2004) that was modified and allocated to EPA Level III ecoregions according to land use histories from the USGS Land Cover Trends project (Loveland et al 2002), as well as expert knowledge. For this study, we used scenarios developed for EPA Level III ecoregions Central California Valley and the Chaparral and Oak Woodlands (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2013), which overlap 92 % of the Rangeland Coalition focus area and fully contain the six case study watersheds (Fig.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Byrd

Flint

Alvarez³

et al. 2015

Landscape Ecol

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Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. Objectives To understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley of California and surrounding foothills consistent with three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario narratives.Methods We quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic carbon (SOC), and water supply (recharge and runoff). For six case study watersheds we quantified the interactions of future development and changing climate on recharge, runoff and streamflow, and precipitation thresholds where dominant watershed hydrological processes shift through analysis of covariance. Results The scenarios show that across the region, habitat loss is expected to occur predominantly in grasslands, primarily due to future development (up to a 37 % decline by 2100), however habitat loss in priority conservation errors will likely be due to cropland and hay/pasture expansion (up to 40 % by 2100). Grasslands in the region contain approximately 100 teragrams SOC in the top 20 cm, and up to 39 % of this SOC is subject to conversion by 2100. In dryer periods recharge processes typically dominate runoff. Future development lowers the precipitation value at 123Landscape Ecol (2015) 30:729-750 DOI 10.1007 which recharge processes dominate runoff, and combined with periods of drought, reduces the opportunity for recharge, especially on deep soils. Conclusion Results support the need for climatesmart land use planning that takes recharge areas into account, which will provide opportunities for water storage in dry years. Given projections for agriculture, more modeling is needed on feedbacks between agricultural expansion on rangelands and water supply.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Byrd

Flint

Alvarez³

et al. 2015

Landscape Ecol

Self Cite

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“…Such downscaling can be qualitative through developing narratives that represent regional or sector-specific storylines nested in, and therefore internally consistent with, the global pathways (e.g. Holman et al 2005;Kok et al 2011;Sleeter et al 2012). Investment in developing qualitative storylines for regions or sectors offers flexibility for incorporating regional and/or sectoral knowledge and preferences to enhance the relevance of the storylines for such applications.…”

Section: Bottom-up and Top-down Approaches To Developing Scenarios Acmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Levy²,

et al. 2013

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This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first Climatic Change (2014) 122:481-494 DOI 10.1007 This article is part of the Special Issue on "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research" edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos. provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

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“…Exploring future land use patterns is critical for anticipating possible negative impacts, identifying potential conflicts between competing land functions, and developing sustainable land use strategies to mitigate these (Verburg et al 2006;Fürst et al 2013;Seppelt et al 2013). Land use modeling based on salient, credible, and legitimate storylines is a fundamental tool for exploring possible futures of land use change (Brown et al 2013), and a wide range of models is currently available (Sleeter et al 2012;Mas et al 2014;Tayyebi et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Stürck¹,

Levers

Zanden³

et al. 2015

Reg Environ Change

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Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

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Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

Cited by 157 publications

References 45 publications

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

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