Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the Colombian Amazon to evaluate alternative post-conflict pathways

Abstract

Pastures and crops have been expanding at an accelerated rate in the forests of the Colombian Amazon since the peace accords were signed in 2016. The rapid loss of tropical rainforests is threatening the integrity of protected areas and connectivity in the Amazon and other natural regions. In the context of the post-conflict stage, a set of land use and land cover change scenarios were constructed for the Colombian Amazon for the year 2040, using expert coherent narratives. Three scenarios were designed: trend, extractivist, and sustainable development. Historic land use change and driving factors were analyzed throughout 14 transitions between the years 2002 and 2016, based on the interpretation of Landsat images and their relationship with 29 driving factors using artificial neural networks. The Markov chain model was calculated for the transitions, and the change allocation model was parameterized to spatially simulate the scenarios. The results showed that the LULC model calibration and validation were satisfactory (0.91). The sustainable development scenario that considers strong policies for the conservation of forests and implementation of sustainable production projects was the option with greater values for conserved forests and secondary vegetation in recovery, adding ~ 42 million hectares by 2040. The other scenarios showed that the Colombian Amazon will lose ~ 2 million hectares of forests in the trend scenario and ~ 4.3 million hectares in the extractivist scenario, based on the reference year (2016). In the trend scenario, pastures and crops could increase by 48%; and, in the extractivist scenario, these would increase by 117%, changing from ~ 3.9 to ~ 8.6 million hectares. We hope that the scientific contribution of this study will be relevant for informed discussion in decision-making and provide a framework for building a peaceful territory.

Fish diversity of Colombian Andes‐Amazon streams at the end of conflict is a reference for conservation before increased land use

“…Our data represent barely impacted conditions soon after the conflict ended and before the development of formerly avoided lands due to strongholds of FARC and other armed groups (Agudelo Hz et al, 2023;Calle-Rendón et al, 2018), as well as the COVID-19 pandemic. Results are especially relevant considering the importance of Andean-Amazonian connectivity (Anderson et al, 2018;Clerici et al, 2019;Melack & Fosberg, 2001) and the high rates of endemism that characterize the area (Tognelli et al, 2016).…”

“…Within Colombia, Amazonian aquatic ecosystems are now at high risk due to expanded human activities, especially expanding agriculture after the establishment of the peace agreements to end armed conflict in 2016 (Tellez, 2019 ). This scenario sets up a critical moment for the establishment of management and conservation policies (Agudelo Hz et al., 2023 ; Clerici et al., 2019 ) to avoid negative conservation outcomes (Feng et al., 2022 ).…”

Complementary ways of seeing “the Nature”: Integrating varieties of knowledge practices in the management of local environmental conflicts in Colombia

“…The recent period of conflict in Colombia has been delineated by the need to extend the production of illegal coca crops and the strategy of illegal land tenure by changing the soil used in extensive areas of Colombia, particularly the Amazon (Murillo-Sandoval et al, 2021). Recent conservation and management strategies have focused on ecological and quantitative descriptions, to design intervention policies related to peace and EP (Agudelo-Hz et al, 2023) but the outcomes are still poor considering the continued high level of environmental degradation.…”

Measuring quantitively peacebuilding co-benefits of cocoa agroforestry systems in the Colombian Amazon

“…If deforestation continues at current levels, the Amazon's forest cover is projected to decrease by 2.1 million hectares by 2040. This number could increase to 4.3 million hectares if extractive policies persist 11 .…”