Scenarios of sustainable irrigation expansion in the 21st century

Maanen, Nicole van; Andrijevic, Marina; Rosa, Lorenzo; Lejeune, Quentin; Schleußner, Carl-Friedrich

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-296540/v1

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…The presence of water, food, and energy crises, both at the global and regional levels, as well as their deterioration under conditions of climate change, increase the strategic importance of irrigation as the guarantor of sustainable development of the agricultural sector of the country's economy [KOVALENKO et al 2019;MARTYN et al 2020;OPENKO et al 2022;SHEVCHENKO et al 2017;VALIPOUR 2017; VAN MAANEN et al 2021].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Journal of Water and Land Development

2022

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The presence of water, food and energy crises, both at the global and regional levels, as well as their deterioration under conditions of climate change, with an insufficient level of technical condition of existing irrigation systems, increase the strategic importance of irrigation as the guarantor of the agricultural sector sustainable development.This makes it necessary to increase, foremost, energy and overall (technical, technological, economic, and environmental) efficiency of the closed irrigation network of irrigation systems. In this regard, the complex that includes organisational-technological, technical, and resource-saving groups of measures was developed. Estimation of energy and overall efficiency of the closed irrigation network of irrigation systems at the implementation of developed complex were executed on the example of the agricultural enterprise located in the Petropavlovsk district of the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine. For this purpose, machine experiment based on a use of the set of optimisation, forecasting and simulation models was implemented, including the model of climatic conditions, the model of water regime and water regulation technologies, as well as the model of crop yields on reclaimed lands.According to the obtained results, established that implementation of the complex reduces the consumption of irrigation water by 2.2-30.7% and electricity consumption by 12.9-38.2%. The rate of specific costs decreases from 1.6 to 1.32-1.47, and the coefficient of environmental reliability increases by 5.6-16.7%. At the same time, the profitability index increases from 1.07 to 1.75-2.57, and the discounted payback period decreases from 18 to 8-5 years.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Journal of Water and Land Development

2022

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“…Nevertheless, these results help assess the future climate consequences of irrigation expansion. Irrigation has been projected to increase in the future as a means to increase agricultural productivity(van Maanen et al, 2021;Rosa et al, 2020) but it may also aggravate future water stress (Haddelandhttps://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-5 Preprint. Discussion started: 21 February 2022 c Author(s) 2022.…”

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The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth System Models

Hertog

Havermann

Vanderkelen

et al. 2022

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Abstract. Land cover and land management change (LCLMC) has been highlighted for its critical role in mitigation scenarios, both in terms of global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet, the climate effect of individual LCLMC options, their dependence on the background climate and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we simulate the climatic effects of LCLMC using three state-of-the-art ESMs, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH). We assess the LCLMC effects using four idealized experiments: (i) a fully afforested world, (ii) a world fully covered by cropland, (ii) a fully afforested world with extensive wood harvesting, and (iv) a full cropland world with extensive irrigation. In these idealized sensitivity experiments, performed under present-day climate conditions, the effects of the different LCLMC strategies represent an upper bound for the potential of global mitigation and local adaptation. To disentangle the local and non-local effects from the LCLMC, a checkerboard-like LCLMC perturbation, i.e., alternating grid boxes with and without LCLMC, is applied. The local effects of deforestation on surface temperature are largely consistent across the ESMs and the observations, with a cooling in boreal latitudes and a warming in the tropics. However, the energy balance components driving the change in surface temperature show less consistency across the ESMs and the observations. Additionally, some biases exist in specific ESMs, such as a strong albedo response in CESM mid-latitudes and a soil thawing driven warming in boreal latitudes in EC-EARTH. The non-local effects on surface temperature are broadly consistent across ESMs for afforestation, though larger model uncertainty exists for cropland expansion. Irrigation clearly induces a cooling effect, however; the ESMs disagree whether these are mainly local or non-local effects. Wood harvesting is found to have no discernible biogeophysical effects on climate. Our results overall underline the potential of ensemble simulations to inform decision making regarding future climate consequences of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

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Scenarios of sustainable irrigation expansion in the 21st century

Cited by 2 publications

References 40 publications

Journal of Water and Land Development

Journal of Water and Land Development

The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth System Models

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