Schedule Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Residential Projects.

Wali, Khalil Ismail; Othman, Shamal Ali

doi:10.21271/zjpas.31.5.11

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…For both of them, the prices expressed on the project's financial information were not the real ones. The Peruvian guidelines state that the costs must be expressed in social ones [27]. The conversion from private to social prices is done through a conversion provided by the Peruvian guidelines.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Monte Carlo Simulation for the Improvement of Drinking Water and Sewerage Services in a Northern Settlement in Peru

Carhuanayocc¹,

Cisneros²,

Condori³

et al. 2022

eer

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Clean water and sewerage systems are essential for global and local development. In Perú, even though most of its urban population has access to these services, it does not mean that those services are enough for the population's necessities. Moreover, they usually do not have acceptable quality. Consequently, it is necessary to invest public funds to provide clean water and sewerage systems to the possible people. However, it does not mean spending money carelessly on projects that might not fulfill people's demands. Then, the current research applied a Monte Carlo-based risk analysis for a public investment project seeking to improve those services in a poor human settlement on the northern coast of Peru. Hence, the Monte Carlo simulation was employed along with its sensitivity analysis. The research found that the project had an excellent chance of being sustainable. Still, it was necessary to make real improvements in the service to meet the population's needs, for instance, by improving the water quality or expanding the hours of clean water supply. Also, due to the investment's quantity, the project's sustainability depends on population growth and public expense efficiency. Finally, the importance of correctly maintaining the works to keep and improve those services was highlighted.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the current research applies a risk estimation model in a public project, it becomes essential to know the official Peruvian guidelines about this issue. According to the Peruvian guides, sensitivity analysis belongs to the risk study [27]. It is possible to employ the terms sensitivity and risk as synonyms.…”

Section: Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A Monte Carlo Simulation for the Improvement of Drinking Water and Sewerage Services in a Northern Settlement in Peru

Carhuanayocc¹,

Cisneros²,

Condori³

et al. 2022

eer

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In this analysis, a rank of probable results is provided [24]. Therefore, it can determine the project risks [26]. This simulation produces random numbers that can estimate probabilistically different scenarios.…”

Section: Monte Carlomentioning

confidence: 99%

Monte Carlo Simulation in a Peruvian Highway

Jaco¹,

Galarza²,

Venero³

et al. 2021

cea

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Highways and roads are important for nations' development and life quality. This is not different for Peru. A highway project called Daniel Alcides Carrión is expected to provide a solution to the over-employed Carretera Central road. This is a multimillionaire and important infrastructure project. Hence, it is important to evaluate the possible sustainability risks. In consequence, this study employed the Monte Carlo simulation for such a purpose. First, variables have been chosen and segregated into input and output. Variables like the initial investment, recurrent maintenance, periodical maintenance, savings in the operative cost of vehicles, and time savings employed the triangular distribution. Traffic growth and inflation rate employed the Pert distribution. The project's Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return have been selected as output variables. Crystal Ball software has been employed to perform the Monte Carlo analysis. Consequently, this research found a high probability that the highway can become a profitable project due to its Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. Moreover, savings in operative costs of vehicles and traffic growth rate had positive impacts on the project's Net Present Value. However, the initial investment had a negative relationship with the output variable. Hence, the new highway should take prevision policies to maintain traffic flux. Thus, avoid closures that can have both human and natural sources. This study is the first in the Peruvian academic literature regarding highways risk analysis. Moreover, this study provides researchers, state officials, future highway managers, and users' valuable information to elaborate preventive measures to maintain the highway's social sustainability and increase its benefits.

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Schedule Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Residential Projects.

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

A Monte Carlo Simulation for the Improvement of Drinking Water and Sewerage Services in a Northern Settlement in Peru

A Monte Carlo Simulation for the Improvement of Drinking Water and Sewerage Services in a Northern Settlement in Peru

Monte Carlo Simulation in a Peruvian Highway

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