Science to Commerce: A Commercial-Scale Protocol for Carbon Trading Applied to a 28-Year Record of Forest Carbon Monitoring at the Harvard Forest

Abstract

Forest carbon sequestration offset protocols have been employed for more than 20 years with limited success in slowing deforestation and increasing forest carbon trading volume. Direct measurement of forest carbon flux improves quantification for trading but has not been applied to forest carbon research projects with more than 600 site installations worldwide. In this study, we apply carbon accounting methods, scaling hours to decades to 28-years of scientific CO2 eddy covariance data for the Harvard Forest (US-Ha1), located in central Massachusetts, USA, establishing commercial carbon trading protocols and applications for similar sites. We illustrate and explain transactions of high-frequency direct measurement for CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE, gC m−2 year−1) that track and monetize ecosystem carbon dynamics in contrast to approaches that rely on forest mensuration and growth models. NEE, based on eddy covariance methodology, quantifies loss of CO2 by ecosystem respiration accounted for as an unavoidable debit to net carbon sequestration. Retrospective analysis of the US-Ha1 NEE times series including carbon pricing, interval analysis, and ton-year exit accounting and revenue scenarios inform entrepreneur, investor, and landowner forest carbon commercialization strategies. CO2 efflux accounts for ~45% of US-Ha1 NEE, or an error of ~466% if excluded; however, the decades-old coupled human and natural system remains a financially viable net carbon sink. We introduce isoflux NEE for t13C16O2 and t12C18O16O to directly partition and quantify daytime ecosystem respiration and photosynthesis, creating new soil carbon commerce applications and derivative products in contrast to undifferentiated bulk soil carbon pool approaches. Eddy covariance NEE methods harmonize and standardize carbon commerce across diverse forest applications including, a New England, USA regional eddy covariance network, the Paris Agreement, and related climate mitigation platforms.

Howland Forest, ME, USA: Multi-Gas Flux Record (CO2, CH4, N2O) Establishes New Forest Products Linked to Social Cost of Emission in Contrast to Carbon Limited Sequestration Proxies

“…The US-Ho1,2 outliers (Fig. 3A) emphasize the need for high frequency monitoring as anomalous years can have disruptive impacts on project revenue [32]. US-Ho3 confirms the sensitivity of eddy covariance NEE to timber harvest and regrowth ( Fig.…”

“…Direct measurement of forest GHG emissions, harmonized by shared reference and standardization, equalizes pricing for voluntary-and compliance buyers [1], [31] worldwide. While eddy covariance offers an alternative to forest mensuration protocols, the main challenge for commercial applications is scale-up of single tower results to larger areas (41,62,71), as well as errors intrinsic to the method addressed in eddy covariance applications [31], [32], [41], [77], and beyond the scope of this study.…”

“…In contrast, direct, hourly, in situ measurement of forest greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, via eddy covariance, a widely used forest research method [21], [22], resulting in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) [22]- [24], integrates vertical gross fluxes between the forest, soils and the atmosphere resulting in net forest GHG sequestration [25]- [29]. The NEE approach, reported in 600+ forest carbon and GHG studies [30], provides the foundation for commercial applications across small and large landscapes [1], [31], [32], and three-gas forest products (CO2, CH4, N2O), integrating gas fluxes (tower and soil accumulation chambers) and respective social costs [33]. Emissions linked to their social cost and corresponding offset revenue potential, now and in the future, are applicable to realization of Green New Deal policies [34], that otherwise lack specificity regarding the role of forests and carbon pricing in reducing GHG emissions [35]- [37].…”

Howland Forest, ME, USA: Multi-Gas Flux (CO2, CH4, N2O) Social Cost Product Underscores Limited Carbon Proxies

“…US-Ho1, 2016, showed the highest GPP relative to R eco, while US-Ho3 values for 2004-2006 exhibit high respiration relative to GPP. The US-Ho1,2 outliers (Figure 3A) emphasize the need for high-frequency monitoring as anomalous years can have disruptive impacts on project revenue [32]. US-Ho3 confirms the sensitivity of eddy covariance NEE to timber harvest and regrowth (Figure 2A,B), a trend not detected by CARB-CAR methods but a requirement to test CARB-CAR modeled harvest and growth simulations [17].…”

“…Such methods result in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) [22][23][24], integrating vertical gross fluxes between the forest, soils, and the atmosphere [25][26][27][28][29]. The NEE approach, reported in 600+ forest carbon and GHG studies [30], provides the foundation for commercial applications across small and large landscapes [1,31,32], and three-gas forest products (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O), integrating gas flux sources (tower and soil accumulation chambers) with pricing guidelines to establish commercial products. Prices for tCH 4 and tN 2 O emission reductions and abatement costs are not well established [7].…”