Science to inform policy: Linking population dynamics to habitat for a threatened species in Canada

Johnson, Cheryl A.; Sutherland, Glenn D.; Neave, Erin; Leblond, Mathieu; Kirby, Patrick; Superbie, Clara; McLoughlin, Philip D.

doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13637

Cited by 58 publications

(130 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…2, λ ~ 1.2) may therefore be too high, leading to overestimated times to quasi‐extinction (Table 3). Sleep and Loehle (2010) also question the equal weights assigned to industrial and natural disturbances in the model, corroborated by the more recent findings of Johnson et al (2020) that herd demography is more sensitive to industrial disturbances than to fire. This would not alter our main results; indeed, it would further emphasize our conclusion pointing to the greater importance of industrial disturbances than fire (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Boreal Caribou Can Coexist with Natural but Not Industrial Disturbances

et al. 2020

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For species at risk, it is important that demographic models be consistent with our most recent knowledge because alternate model versions can have differing predictions for wildlife and natural resource management. To establish and maintain this consistency, we can compare predicted model values to current or past observations and demographic knowledge. When novel predictor information becomes available, testing for consistency between modeled and observed values ensures the best models are used for robust, evidence-based, wildlife management. We combine novel information on the extent of historical disturbance regimes (industrial and fire) to an existing demographic model and predict historical and projected demographics of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Exploring 6 simulation experiments across 5 populations in Alberta, Canada, we identify the relative importance of industrial disturbance, fire, and population density to observed population size and growth rate. We confirm the onset of significant declines across all 5 populations began approximately 30 years ago, demonstrate these declines have been consistent, and conclude they are more likely due to industrial disturbance from the oil and gas sector within contemporary population ranges than historical fire regimes. These findings reinforce recent research on the cause of woodland caribou declines. Testing for consistency between observations and models prescribed for species recovery is paramount for assessing the cause of declines, projecting population trends, and refining recovery strategies for effective wildlife management. We provide a novel simulation method for conducting these tests.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Boreal Caribou Can Coexist with Natural but Not Industrial Disturbances

et al. 2020

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“…A likely compounding factor that we did not directly estimate in our study is atmospheric CO 2 fertilization, a global phenomenon that is predicted to exacerbate the eutrophication of the boreal forest biome [2]. Canada's recovery strategy for boreal woodland caribou is based on a national-scale meta-analysis that produced a robust relationship between increased habitat alteration and reduced caribou vital rates [47,82]. This relationship guides federal policy intended to increase habitat conservation and restoration with the goal of achieving self-sustaining woodland caribou populations across Canada.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Canada's recovery strategy for boreal woodland caribou is based on a national-scale meta-analysis that produced a robust relationship between increased habitat alteration and reduced caribou vital rates [ 47 , 82 ]. This relationship guides federal policy intended to increase habitat conservation and restoration with the goal of achieving self-sustaining woodland caribou populations across Canada.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We note that our analysis did not explicitly address wildfire, which is a widespread disturbance in the boreal forest, yet ΔEVI would implicitly incorporate the effects of wildfire [ 83 ]. In addition, [ 82 ] showed that wildfire had much less influence on caribou demography relative to human-caused habitat alteration (and see [ 84 ]). We also found that [ 46 ]'s threshold of 6.5 wolves 1000 km −2 and a more conservative federal target of 3.0 1000 km −2 [ 85 ] are both too high for our study system (which is restricted to the boreal forest), where a density up to 1.8 wolves 1000 km −2 is more likely to yield stable caribou populations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trophic consequences of terrestrial eutrophication for a threatened ungulate

et al. 2021

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Changes in primary productivity have the potential to substantially alter food webs, with positive outcomes for some species and negative outcomes for others. Understanding the environmental context and species traits that give rise to these divergent outcomes is a major challenge to the generality of both theoretical and applied ecology. In aquatic systems, nutrient-mediated eutrophication has led to major declines in species diversity, motivating us to seek terrestrial analogues using a large-mammal system across 598 000 km 2 of the Canadian boreal forest. These forests are undergoing some of the most rapid rates of land-use change on Earth and are home to declining caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ) populations. Using satellite-derived estimates of primary productivity, coupled with estimates of moose ( Alces alces ) and wolf ( Canis lupus ) abundance, we used path analyses to discriminate among hypotheses explaining how habitat alteration can affect caribou population growth. Hypotheses included food limitation, resource dominance by moose over caribou, and apparent competition with predators shared between moose and caribou. Results support apparent competition and yield estimates of wolf densities (1.8 individuals 1000 km −2 ) above which caribou populations decline. Our multi-trophic analysis provides insight into the cascading effects of habitat alteration from forest cutting that destabilize terrestrial predator–prey dynamics. Finally, the path analysis highlights why conservation actions directed at the proximate cause of caribou decline have been more successful in the near term than those directed further along the trophic chain.

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“…Caribou exhibit low fecundity (litter size of 1; Jönsson 1997) and highly variable calf survival (0.23−0.79; Mahoney et al 1990, Gustine et al 2006, Pinard et al 2012). Rates of adult female survival are typically higher than those of juveniles across their range (0.75−0.92; Mahoney and Virgl 2003, Courtois et al 2007, Hervieux et al 2013, Fryxell et al 2020, Johnson et al 2020). Some management actions that focus on improving female survival may be less effective at improving population growth than actions that target juveniles because of evolutionary canalization (Gaillard and Yoccoz 2003, Johnson et al 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

Comparison of Woodland Caribou Calving Areas Determined by Movement Patterns Across Northern Ontario

et al. 2020

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Adult female survival and calf recruitment influence population dynamics, but there is limited information on calving and neonatal mortality of boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou; caribou) in Ontario, Canada. We identified calf parturition sites and 5-week neonatal mortality using a movement-based approach across 3 northern Ontario study regions (Pickle Lake, Nakina, and Cochrane) that vary in their capacity to support caribou populations. In comparing 22 caribou-years of video-collar footage during 2010-2013 to predictions of the movement-based approach, we found live parturition events were 100% correctly classified, date of parturition was within 1.08 ± 0.28 (x ± SE) days, and mortality events up to 5 weeks postpartum were 88% correctly classified. Across study regions, 87% of 186 caribou were pregnant and 76% of 107 caribou-years indicated birth events with median parturition dates a week later in Cochrane (23 May) than in Pickle Lake (17 May) and Nakina (16 May). Based on selection ratios of caribou-years with calves-at-heel (n = 80), caribou consistently selected for lowlands and closed-canopied forests and mostly against early-seral stands (<20 yrs old) and areas near linear features during the neonatal and the post-neonatal period (up to 35 days postpartum). Based on the video footage and movement models, 30% of 81 caribou-years that indicated live births also showed females lost their calf within the first 5 weeks postpartum, with higher risk of neonatal mortality associated with increased use of lowlands and greater postpartum movement rates. This study provides informative metrics of caribou reproduction across northern Ontario that will contribute to future population modeling and identifies important landscape features to be considered in future industrial development and land use planning for caribou conservation.

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Science to inform policy: Linking population dynamics to habitat for a threatened species in Canada

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

Cited by 58 publications

References 43 publications

Boreal Caribou Can Coexist with Natural but Not Industrial Disturbances

Boreal Caribou Can Coexist with Natural but Not Industrial Disturbances

Trophic consequences of terrestrial eutrophication for a threatened ungulate

Comparison of Woodland Caribou Calving Areas Determined by Movement Patterns Across Northern Ontario

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