Screening and vaccination against COVID-19 to minimise school closure: a modelling study

Colosi, Elisabetta; Bassignana, Giulia; Contreras, Diego Andrés; Poirier, Canelle; Boëlle, Pierre‐Yves; Cauchemez, Simon; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Lina, Bruno; Fontanet, Arnaud; Barrat, Alain; Colizza, Vittoria

doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00138-4

Cited by 49 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…These results agree with previous results by Colosi and colleagues that assessed the impact of interventions in primary and secondary schools over three months. 8 Our analyses further show that the cost-benefit of annual booster vaccinations is similar to screening during winter periods. Due to waning of immunity, their cost-benefit is low in summer.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…The baseline scenario assumes a school-related basic reproduction number for Omicron of 2.0 during the winter period (October to March) and of 1.5 during the summer period (25% decrease compared to winter, April to September), assuming a 40%-60% increase to estimates from the Delta variant. 8,10 We assumed compliance to isolation guidelines for symptomatically infected students of 33%, 26 i.e. home isolation for seven days upon a positive PCR test, but no other mitigation measures in schools.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…8,10 Its effectiveness, however, highly depends on testing adherence and turn-around time. 8,9 A modelling study calibrated to Austrian data found that large infection clusters are effectively prevented by a combination of school-based measures only. 9…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Modelling studies in school populations thus far mainly focused on estimating within-school reproduction numbers and on short-term predictions of the potential impact of school-based mitigation measures (e.g., school closure, regular testing, maskwearing, room ventilation, cohorting) during single waves of the pandemic. [8][9][10] Regular screening using rapid antigen tests was found to be efficient in preventing infections while reducing absent student days. 8,10 Its effectiveness, however, highly depends on testing adherence and turn-around time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in secondary schools: a modelling study

Pham

Westerhof

Bootsma

et al. 2022

Preprint

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BackgroundThe Omicron variant has caused a new wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections worldwide. We explore crucial epidemiological parameters driving seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in secondary schools and assess various infection control interventions over a 2.5-year time frame.MethodsWe developed an agent-based model parameterised with data from secondary schools in the Netherlands. We modelled the circulation of Omicron assuming a stable introduction rate of infections and accounted for uncertainty in epidemiological parameters describing virus transmissibility, susceptibility to reinfection, vaccine immune escape, and waning of sterilising immunity. We quantified the SARS-CoV-2 health burden defined as number of symptomatic student days. We further evaluated the cost-benefit (number of prevented infected students per absent student) for reactive quarantine interventions, regular screening using antigen tests, and annual booster vaccinations.FindingsDurability of sterilising immunity is a key parameter that governs temporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns in secondary schools. Our model predicts pronounced within-school seasonal patterns with dominant autumn outbreaks and smaller winter outbreaks and a maximum prevalence of 2.9% (95% CI: 0.7%-6.6%) symptomatic students during infection peaks. Regular screening and annual booster vaccination may reduce the health burden up to 15% (95% CI: 1.5%-27.8%) and have a higher cost-benefit ratio than reactive quarantine interventions (reduction: 4.3%; 95% CI: -10.1% to 17.6%).InterpretationImmunity waning will determine the intensity and pattern of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in secondary schools in the medium-term future. If mitigation strategies are needed, screening and annual booster vaccination have the highest cost-benefit by reducing viral transmission with little educational disruption.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 53%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in secondary schools: a modelling study

Pham

Westerhof

Bootsma

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…In The Lancet Infectious Diseases , Elisabetta Colosi and colleagues 2 report modelling results investigating the impact of different potential testing strategies in French primary (ages 6–11 years) and secondary (in this study comprising ages 17–18 years) schools. The results are informed by pre-pandemic data on contact patterns, collected via radio frequency identification tags (wearable sensors that detect proximity), and infection data from pilot screening trials in French primary and secondary schools.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling results on the impact of COVID-19 testing in schools

Dyson

2022

The Lancet Infectious Diseases

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Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Households With Children in France, 2020-2022

Galmiche,

Charmet,

Rakover

et al. 2023

JAMA Netw Open

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ImportanceUnderstanding the contribution of children to SARS-CoV-2 circulation in households is critical for designing public health policies and mitigation strategies.ObjectiveTo identify temporal changes in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in people living with children.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis case-control study included online questionnaire responses from French adults between October 2020 and October 2022. Eligible cases were adults with ongoing SARS-CoV-2 infection with an email address on record with the national health insurance system, which centralized all new diagnoses in France. Eligible controls were adults who had never tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 until February 2021, when eligibility was extended to all adults without ongoing SARS-CoV-2 infection.ExposureTransmission of SARS-CoV-2 from a child (aged under 18 years) within the household in the descriptive analysis, as reported by the participating case. Sharing household with a child (of any age or broken down by school level) in the case-control analysis.Main Outcome and MeasuresOngoing SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction or supervised rapid antigen test (ie, not self-tests).ResultsA total of 682 952 cases were included for the descriptive analysis (68.8% female, median [IQR] age, 44 [34-55] years). Among those, 45 108 (6.6%) identified a household child as the source case; this proportion peaked at 10.4% during the Omicron BA.1 wave (December 20, 2021, to April 8, 2022). For the case-control analysis, we matched 175 688 cases (with a 4:1 ratio) for demographic characteristics with 43 922 controls. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, household exposure to children was associated with an increased risk of infection mainly at the end of summer 2021 (receding Delta wave) and during winter 2022 (Omicron BA.1 wave). In subgroup analysis by school level of the child, living with children under the age of 6 was associated with increased odds of infection throughout the study period, peaking at an odds ratio (OR) 1.8 (95% CI, 1.6-2.1) for children looked after by professional in-home caregivers, 1.7 (95% CI, 1.5-1.7) for children in day care facilities, and 1.6 (95% CI, 1.4-1.8) for children in preschool. The ORs associated with household exposure to children aged 6 to 14 years increased during the Delta (August 14, 2021, to December 19, 2021) and Omicron BA.1 waves, reaching 1.6 (95% CI, 1.5-1.7) for primary school children and 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3-1.5) for middle school children. Exposure to older children aged 15 to 17 years was associated with a moderate risk until April 2021, with an OR of 1.2 (95% CI, 1.2-1.3) during curfew in early 2021 (December 4, 2020, to April 8, 2021).Conclusions and RelevanceThe presence of children, notably very young ones, was associated with an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in other household members, especially during the Delta and Omicron BA.1 waves. These results should help to guide policies targeting children and immunocompromised members of their household.

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Screening and vaccination against COVID-19 to minimise school closure: a modelling study

Cited by 49 publications

References 25 publications

Seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in secondary schools: a modelling study

Seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in secondary schools: a modelling study

Modelling results on the impact of COVID-19 testing in schools

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Households With Children in France, 2020-2022

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