Sea-level rise and resilience in Vietnam and the Asia-Pacific: A synthesis

Hens, Luc; Thinh, Nguyen An; Hanh, Tran Hong; Cuong, Ngo Sy; Lân, Trần Đình; Thành, Nguyễn Văn; Le, Dang Thanh

doi:10.15625/0866-7187/40/2/11107

Cited by 36 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Besides growing rice, it is also possible to cultivate vegetables, fish, prawns and ducks in the flooded fields (Nguyen and James, 2013). Towards the end of the flooding season and the start of the rice cultivation season, floodwaters provide the water needed to start growing rice (Hoa et al, 2008).…”

Section: Freshwater Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interacting effects of land-use change and natural hazards on rice agriculture in the Mekong and Red River deltas in Vietnam

Yuen

Hanh

Quynh³

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Vietnam is a major rice producer, and much of the rice grown is concentrated in the Red River Delta (RRD) and the Mekong River Delta (MRD). While the two deltas are highly productive regions, they are vulnerable to natural hazards and the effects of human-induced environmental change. To show that the processes and issues affecting food security are reinforcing, interdependent and operating at multiple scales, we used a systems-thinking approach to represent the major linkages between anthropogenic land-use and natural hazards and elaborate on how the drivers and environmental processes interact and influence rice growing area, rice yield and rice quality in the two deltas. On a local scale, demand for aquaculture and alternative crops, urban expansion, dike development, sand mining and groundwater extraction decrease rice production in the two deltas. Regionally, upstream dam construction impacts rice production in the two deltas despite being distally situated. Separately, the localized natural hazards that have adversely affected rice production include droughts, floods and typhoons. Outbreaks of pests and diseases are also common. Climate-change-induced sea level rise is a global phenomenon that will affect agricultural productivity. Notably, anthropogenic developments meant to improve agricultural productivity or increase economic growth can create many unwanted environmental consequences such as an increase in flooding, saltwater intrusion and land subsidence, which in turn decreases rice production and quality. In addition, natural hazards may amplify the problems created by human activities. Our meta-analysis highlights the ways in which a systems-thinking approach can yield more nuanced perspectives to tackle “wicked” and interrelated environmental challenges. Given that deltas worldwide are globally significant for food production and are highly stressed and degraded, a systems-thinking approach can be applied to provide a holistic and contextualized overview of the threats faced in each location.

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Section: Freshwater Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interacting effects of land-use change and natural hazards on rice agriculture in the Mekong and Red River deltas in Vietnam

Yuen

Hanh

Quynh³

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Vietnam in general and Nghe An in particular has been affected by different natural hazards such as flood, arsenic pollution [31], radiation hazard [32], erosion [33][34][35], sea level rise [36,37], earthquakes [38][39][40][41][42], volcanos [43,44], and landslides [45]. Nghe An province is in the North Central Coast region of Vietnam ( Figure 1).…”

Section: Description Of Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Study of Kernel Logistic Regression, Radial Basis Function Classifier, Multinomial Naïve Bayes, and Logistic Model Tree for Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping

Pham

Phong

Nguyen

et al. 2020

Water

109

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Risk of flash floods is currently an important problem in many parts of Vietnam. In this study, we used four machine-learning methods, namely Kernel Logistic Regression (KLR), Radial Basis Function Classifier (RBFC), Multinomial Naïve Bayes (NBM), and Logistic Model Tree (LMT) to generate flash flood susceptibility maps at the minor part of Nghe An province of the Center region (Vietnam) where recurrent flood problems are being experienced. Performance of these four methods was evaluated to select the best method for flash flood susceptibility mapping. In the model studies, ten flash flood conditioning factors, namely soil, slope, curvature, river density, flow direction, distance from rivers, elevation, aspect, land use, and geology, were chosen based on topography and geo-environmental conditions of the site. For the validation of models, the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC), and various statistical indices were used. The results indicated that performance of all the models is good for generating flash flood susceptibility maps (AUC = 0.983–0.988). However, performance of LMT model is the best among the four methods (LMT: AUC = 0.988; KLR: AUC = 0.985; RBFC: AUC = 0.984; and NBM: AUC = 0.983). The present study would be useful for the construction of accurate flash flood susceptibility maps with the objectives of identifying flood-susceptible areas/zones for proper flash flood risk management.

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“…For Vietnam, observations at tide gauges show an average increase of 3.3 mm per year during the period 1993 to 2014 (Hens et al, 2018).…”

Section: Interactive Commentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response to Reviewer 1

Yuen¹

2020

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We thank Reviewer 1 for taking the time to critically evaluate our manuscript and for providing constructive comments to improve our paper. Below, we reproduce all the comments that we have received from the reviewers and detail how we will address them in the revised version of our manuscript. Reference details for the citations used in our responses are provided as a list at the end of this document. General comments My overall general criticisms are: 1. That more information/data/evidence is needed C1 NHESSD Interactive comment Printer-friendly version Discussion paper in support of the factors and processes that might impact rice cultivation on the two deltas investigated. At present there is mention of salt intrusion, erosion, sediment extraction, deltaic subsidence, fluvial sediment capture by dams, contamination, loss of soil quality, sea-level rise and increasing frequency/intensity of hazards. All of these are no doubt important for the long term sustainability of the MRD and RRD. But at the moment various statements by the authors about the relative importance of these processes need better grounding. There needs to be inclusion of published data where available, in order to help firm up the main arguments in the discussion. I fully understand that the overarching aim of the paper is to enable visualisation on how all the various influences are connected. But additional data from the literature are nonetheless still needed for proper substantiation. 2. Many minor grammatical errors need correcting throughout the manuscript. 3. Figures 2 and 3 need rethinking and should be improved. The case studies in support of the factors and processes that might impact rice cultivation in the two deltas were provided in the supplementary materials. However, we agree with the Reviewer that we should include this information in the manuscript to support our arguments. We will work on including some of the case studies listed in the supplementary materials in the main text. In addition, we will fix the minor grammatical errors throughout the manuscript. Lastly, we agree that Figures 2 and 3 can be improved. We have worked on improving them based on the Reviewer's specific comments. Specific comments Specific comments and recommendations are listed as below. These are in order as they appear in the manuscript. I trust that the authors will not feel these are unnecessarily critical, but are offered in the spirit of improving the paper for eventual publication.

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Sea-level rise and resilience in Vietnam and the Asia-Pacific: A synthesis

Cited by 36 publications

References 67 publications

Interacting effects of land-use change and natural hazards on rice agriculture in the Mekong and Red River deltas in Vietnam

Interacting effects of land-use change and natural hazards on rice agriculture in the Mekong and Red River deltas in Vietnam

A Comparative Study of Kernel Logistic Regression, Radial Basis Function Classifier, Multinomial Naïve Bayes, and Logistic Model Tree for Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping

Response to Reviewer 1

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