Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate

Hieronymus, Magnus; Kalén, Ola

doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8

Cited by 44 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 36 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…However, this is somewhat compensated by lower recent estimates of dynamical sea-level rise in the North Atlantic region (Hieronymus and Kalén, 2020). Stronger winds and increased run-off may further contribute to future Baltic sea level rise in the order of some cm (Meier, 2006;Hünicke, 2010;Johansson, 2014;Karabil, 2017;Pellikka et al, 2018).…”

Section: Variability Change and Acceleration Of Baltic Sea Mean Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the future, global mean sea level rise is expected to have the largest impact on future Baltic sea level changes (Grinsted, 2015;Hieronymus and Kalén, 2020). It is expected, that most of the future Baltic absolute sea level rise will be strongly linked with corresponding large-scale changes in the North Atlantic and the factors modulating these changes.…”

Section: Variability Change and Acceleration Of Baltic Sea Mean Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GIA is expected to continue at rates similar to that observed over the last century. Absolute mean sea levels are expected to rise in the entire Baltic Sea, but exact rates are uncertain and depend on models, scenarios, and periods considered (Grinsted, 2015;Hieronymus and Kalén, 2020). Potential future changes in long-term mean and extreme wind speeds are highly uncertain (Räisänen, 2017 realization used for the projection (e.g.…”

Section: Variability and Change Of Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Weisse¹,

Dailidienė²,

Hünicke³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. There are a large number of geophysical processes affecting sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region. These processes operate on a large range of spatial and temporal scales and are observed in many other coastal regions worldwide. Together with the outstanding number of long data records, this makes the Baltic Sea a unique laboratory for advancing our knowledge on interactions between processes steering sea level and erosion in a climate change context. Processes contributing to sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea include the still ongoing visco-elastic response of the Earth to the last deglaciation, contributions from global and North Atlantic mean sea level changes, or from wind waves affecting erosion and sediment transport along the subsiding southern Baltic Sea coast. Other examples are storm surges, seiches, or meteotsunamis contributing primarily to sea level extremes. All such processes have undergone considerable variations and changes in the past. For example, over the past about 50 years, the Baltic absolute (geocentric) mean sea level rose at a rate slightly larger than the global average. In the northern parts, due to vertical land movements, relative sea level decreased. Sea level extremes are strongly linked to variability and changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Patterns and mechanisms contributing to erosion and accretion strongly depend on hydrodynamic conditions and their variability. For large parts of the sedimentary shores of the Baltic Sea, the wave climate and the angle at which the waves approach the nearshore are the dominant factors, and coastline changes are highly sensitive to even small variations in these driving forces. Consequently, processes contributing to Baltic sea level dynamics and coastline change are expected to vary and to change in the future leaving their imprint on future Baltic sea level and coastline change and variability. Because of the large number of contributing processes, their relevance for understanding global figures, and the outstanding data availability, we argue that global sea level research and research on coastline changes may greatly benefit from research undertaken in the Baltic Sea.

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Section: Variability Change and Acceleration Of Baltic Sea Mean Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Variability Change and Acceleration Of Baltic Sea Mean Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Variability and Change Of Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Weisse¹,

Dailidienė²,

Hünicke³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…In this study, 48 scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea were carried out based upon a matrix of (1) four driving ESMs 68,69 ; (2) two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios following RCP 4.5 (medium) and RCP 8.5 (high) 33 ; (3) two nutrient load scenarios following regionalised SSP 1 (a low case scenario, called BSAP 26 ) and SSP 2 (a business-as-usual or REF scenario that takes into account the impact of climate change and the current socioeconomic conditions 29,37,52 ) and (4) three linearly increasing SLR scenarios from the year 2005. The projected mean sea-level changes in the year 2100 are: (scenario 1) 0 m, (scenario 2) the ensemble mean of RCP 4.5 (0.54 m) and RCP 8.5 (0.90 m) IPCC projections 56,81 and (scenario 3) the 95th percentiles of the low-(1.26 m) and high-case (2.34 m) scenarios following Bamber et al 62 (Table 1). Hence, we added another dimension to the ensemble to consider the uncertainties in SLR on global scales.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, a very optimistic SLR scenario would be that the future SLR simply follows the lower estimate of the past SLR. The mean sea-level conditions (scenario 2) were compiled according to the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate 56 without considering the glacial isostatic adaptation and the gravitationally induced adjustments for the Baltic Sea region that were made due to preferential melting of the Antarctic ice sheet 81,83 . For the high scenario (scenario 3), experiments with an SLR according to the 95th percentile, as suggested by Bamber et al 62 , were carried out.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

Meier

Dieterich

Gröger

2021

Commun Earth Environ

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Coastal seas worldwide suffer from increasing human impact. One of the most severe environmental threats is excessive nutrient pollution from land, which causes oxygen depletion and harmful algal blooms. In 2018, the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea was determined to contain the largest hypoxic area among the world’s coastal seas, with a size equal to the Republic of Ireland. In this study, ensemble modelling was used to investigate whether climate change will intensify hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and whether nutrient load abatement strategies would counteract this scenario. We analysed the largest ensemble of scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea currently available (including different boundary conditions) and estimated the magnitude of various sources of uncertainty. The results showed that natural variability was a larger source of uncertainty than previously considered. The earliest time and appropriate location to detect a trend above the background noise were estimated. A significant decrease in hypoxia can be achieved by further reductions in nutrient loads implemented in combination with existing measures.

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Mittlerer Meeresspiegelanstieg und Sturmfluten

Weisse,

Meinke

2023

Klimawandel in Deutschland

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ZusammenfassungIn Norddeutschland ist der Anstieg des mittleren Meeresspiegels eine der deutlichsten bereits messbaren Folgen des Klimawandels. An allen untersuchten Pegeln der deutschen Nord- und Ostseeküste lässt sich dieser Anstieg nachvollziehen. So zeigen die Auswertungen der Wasserstandsdaten, dass der mittlere Meeresspiegel an unseren Küsten in den letzten einhundert Jahren (1921–2020) etwa ein bis zwei Millimeter pro Jahr angestiegen ist. Dies entspricht in etwa dem globalen mittleren Meeresspiegelanstieg im selben Zeitraum. Für die letzten Jahrzehnte dokumentiert der Weltklimarat IPCC eine Beschleunigung des globalen mittleren Meeresspiegelanstiegs. An den Pegeln der deutschen Küsten lässt sich bisher keine systematische Beschleunigung nachweisen. Zwar steigt der mittlere Meeresspiegel an einigen Pegeln derzeit schneller als im langjährigen Durchschnitt, jedoch liegen die derzeitigen Anstiegsraten noch im normalen Bereich und sind oft vergleichbar mit vergangenen Zeiträumen, in denen der mittlere Meeresspiegel zum Teil sogar noch schneller stieg. Klimaszenarien deuten darauf hin, dass der globale mittlere Meeresspiegel künftig immer schneller steigen kann, insbesondere bei anhaltend hohem Treibhausgasausstoß. Verschiedene Studien weisen darauf hin, dass der künftige Meeresspiegelanstieg an unseren Küsten sich nur unwesentlich vom globalen Mittel unterscheiden wird und dass je nach zugrundeliegendem Szenario mit Anstiegen im Bereich von 30 bis 110 cm zum Ende des Jahrhunderts zu rechnen ist.

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Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate

Cited by 44 publications

References 36 publications

Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region

Natural variability is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

Mittlerer Meeresspiegelanstieg und Sturmfluten

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