The ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea are thinning rapidly, and the main reason for their decline appears to be warm ocean currents circulating below the ice shelves and melting these from below. Ocean currents transport warm dense water onto the shelf, channeled by bathymetric troughs leading to the deep inner basins. A hydrographic mooring equipped with an upward-looking ADCP has been placed in one of these troughs on the central Amundsen shelf. The two years (2010/11) of mooring data are here used to characterize the inflow of warm deep water to the deep shelf basins. During both years, the warm layer thickness and temperature peaked in austral fall. The along-trough velocity is dominated by strong fluctuations that do not vary in the vertical. These fluctuations are correlated with the local wind, with eastward wind over the shelf and shelf break giving flow toward the ice shelves. In addition, there is a persistent flow of dense lower Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) toward the ice shelves in the bottom layer. This bottom-intensified flow appears to be driven by buoyancy forces rather than the shelfbreak wind. The years of 2010 and 2011 were characterized by a comparatively stationary Amundsen Sea low, and hence there were no strong eastward winds during winter that could drive an upwelling of warm water along the shelf break. Regardless of this, there was a persistent flow of lower CDW in the bottom layer during the two years. The average heat transport toward the ice shelves in the trough was estimated from the mooring data to be 0.95 TW.

The circulation pathways and subsurface cooling and freshening of warm deep water on the central Amundsen Sea shelf are deduced from hydrographic transects and four subsurface moorings. The Amundsen Sea continental shelf is intersected by the Dotson trough (DT), leading from the outer shelf to the deep basins on the inner shelf. During the measurement period, warm deep water was observed to flow southward on the eastern side of DT in approximate geostrophic balance. A northward outflow from the shelf was also observed along the bottom in the western side of DT. Estimates of the flow rate suggest that up to one-third of the inflowing warm deep water leaves the shelf area below the thermocline in this deep outflow. The deep current was 1.2°C colder and 0.3 psu fresher than the inflow, but still warm, salty, and dense compared to the overlying water mass. The temperature and salinity properties suggest that the cooling and freshening process is induced by subsurface melting of glacial ice, possibly from basal melting of Dotson and Getz ice shelves. New heat budgets are presented, with a southward oceanic heat transport of 3.3 TW on the eastern side of the DT, a northward oceanic heat transport of 0.5–1.6 TW on the western side, and an ocean-to-glacier heat flux of 0.9–2.53 TW, equivalent to melting glacial ice at the rate of 83–237 km3 yr−1. Recent satellite-based estimates of basal melt rates for the glaciers suggest comparable values for the Getz and Dotson ice shelves.

The changing supply of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) to the West Antarctic continental shelf is responsible for the basal melting and thinning of the West Antarctic ice shelves that has occurred in recent decades. Here we assess the variability in CDW supply, and its drivers, from a multiyear mooring deployed in, and a regional ocean model spanning, the Getz‐Dotson Trough, Amundsen Sea. Between 2010 to 2015, the CDW within the trough underwent a pronounced cooling and freshening, associated with changes in thermohaline properties on isopycnals. Variability in the rate of CDW inflow is controlled by local wind forcing of a shelf break undercurrent, which determines the hydrographic properties of inflowing CDW via tilting of density surfaces above the continental slope. Local wind is coupled to the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) low‐pressure system, which is modulated by large‐scale climatic modes via atmospheric teleconnections. For the period analyzed, a deeper ASL was associated with westward wind anomaly at the shelf break. Changes in the sea surface slope decelerated the shelf break undercurrent, resulting in less heat accessing the continental shelf and, consequently, a cooling of the Getz‐Dotson Trough. Therefore, the present work suggests that the fate of the West Antarctic ice shelves is closely tied to the future evolution of the ASL.

New sea-level rise projections for Sweden are presented. Compared to earlier projections, we have here, more carefully, taken regional variations in sea-level rise into consideration. The better treatment of regional variations leads to lower sea-level rise projections for Sweden. However, recent research has also shown that Antarctic ice loss, in high emission scenarios, could be greater than what was believed earlier. Taking also this into account, we find a near cancellation between the increased Antarctic contribution and the decrease owing to the better treatment of spatial inhomogeneities. Sweden’s sensitivity to melt from Antarctica and Greenland is also estimated using a new set of sea-level fingerprint kernels, and the sensitivity to melt from Greenland is found to be weak. To illustrate the influence mean sea-level rise has on extreme sea levels, it is also shown how the return period of sea-level extremes changes as a function of time owing to mean sea-level rise in the different projections. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.