Seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture: Towards better understanding and value

McIntosh, Peter C.; Pook, Michael J.; Risbey, James S.; Lisson, S; Rebbeck, Melissa

doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2007.03.019

Cited by 64 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Mean back-trajectory analysis of cutoff lows over southeastern Australia indicates that air parcels convey moisture from oceanic source regions, with tropical sources dominating in the higher rainfall events . However, McIntosh et al (2007) have demonstrated that the atmosphere is highly variable and trajectories are observed from the oceans to the northeast, north and northwest of Australia, as well as occasionally originating over the southern Ocean.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The autumn break for cropping in southeast Australia: trends, synoptic influences and impacts on wheat yield

Pook

Lisson

Risbey

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The autumn break is the first significant rainfall event of the winter growing season. Two definitions of the autumn break have been developed for northwestern Victoria; a so-called ideal break and a minimum rainfall condition for sowing a wheat crop termed a minimal break. Application of the ideal break definition for an eight-station average reveals that 41 autumn breaks occurred in the first half of the record and 34 in the second half ) with a trend towards breaks occurring later in the season. In the decade to 2006, there have been only 3 ideal breaks (1999, 2000 and 2005) and none of the selected rainfall stations has recorded an 'extreme' wet autumn over the last 11 years, the longest period recorded for this criterion. A synoptic analysis for the period 1956-2006 has established that breaks are predominantly associated with systems known as cutoff lows. The influence of these systems has varied markedly throughout the analysis period and only one autumn break has been caused by a cutoff low in the final decade of the analysis. Additionally, the total rainfall associated with cutoff lows in the April to June period has declined significantly over the past 30 years.A farming system model has been employed to simulate a wheat crop in northwestern Victoria under historical conditions for a range of management options. Average yield across all years of the simulation declines with delay in the sowing date after late April, but there is a marked interannual variability in yield response to the sowing date which is related to rainfall distribution in the growing season in each year. The simulated in-crop rainfall indicates that the most recent drought in southeastern Australia is comparable in severity with the two major droughts in the 20th Century.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The autumn break for cropping in southeast Australia: trends, synoptic influences and impacts on wheat yield

Pook

Lisson

Risbey

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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“…Agricultural productivity can be increased and costs of production minimized through informed use of weather/climate information, which makes it verydifferent categories of decision-makers (Goddard et al, 2010). Moreover, studies demonstrate that there is potential value in incorporating seasonal forecasts into the decision-making of different sectors (Cabrera et al, 2007;Hammer et al, 2001;Hansen, 2002;Hansen et al, 2009;McIntosh et al, 2007;Thomson et al, 2006). However, many studies that have been done on scientific climate and weather information in Africa cite gaps that still exist between information provided and information desired, including challenges such as inaccurate forecasts, inadequate access to information as a barrier to utilization of internet data, lack of climate data, little meaningful use of the information (policies, planning, decision making at a higher level), products not well developed (some data have not been digitized) low skills, and lack of adequate timing for information dissemination (Frimpong, 2013).…”

Section: Sources Of Seasonal Climate Forecast Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Climate Prediction and Adaptation Using Indigenous Knowledge Systems in Agriculture Systems in Southern Africa: A Review

Jiri¹,

Mafongoya²,

Mubaya³

et al. 2016

JAS

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Erratic rainfall and increasing temperature is rapidly emerging as one of the most serious global problems affecting many sectors in the world. It is considered to be one of the most serious threats to sustainable development with adverse impact on environment, human health, food security, economic activities, natural resources and physical infrastructure. Southern Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in the world, particularly because of widespread poverty, recurrent droughts, inequitable land distribution, over-dependence on rain-fed agriculture and low adaptive capacity. Yet rural farmers in southern Africa have managed to survive the vagaries of climate change over the years. This review reveals that these rural farmers can use indigenous knowledge to cope and adapt to climate change. Availability and access to scientific weather information to make cropping and other decisions at the local level remain key issues to usage of climatic data by rural farmers. On the other hand, indigenous knowledge is what rural farmers have been using but is also becoming unreliable due to climate change and variability. Integration of indigenous knowledge and scientific seasonal forecast seems to be a key possible thrust to reduce vulnerability, enhance resilience of rural farmers and increase their adaptive capacity.

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“…The premise for Table 6 is the decision by wheat farmers to apply top-dressed fertiliser in order to benefit from expected rainfall [12], however the numbers selected are arbitrary and shown for illustration. Another management decision that could be studied using this methodology is choice of cultivar, for example to decide whether to plant a drought tolerant strain of wheat or one with a higher potential yield in the event of good rains.…”

Section: Extending the Binary Cost-loss Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The beef industry in Vanuatu can benefit from forward estimates of how many head of cattle a pasture will be able to support. Seasonal forecasts have been shown to be of economic utility in the management of wheat farming in Australia by guiding changes in practice such as crop row spacing and fertilizer application [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Climate Risk with Seasonal Forecasts

Charles¹,

Kuleshov²,

Jones³

2012

Risk Management - Current Issues and Challenges

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Seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture: Towards better understanding and value

Cited by 64 publications

References 19 publications

The autumn break for cropping in southeast Australia: trends, synoptic influences and impacts on wheat yield

The autumn break for cropping in southeast Australia: trends, synoptic influences and impacts on wheat yield

Seasonal Climate Prediction and Adaptation Using Indigenous Knowledge Systems in Agriculture Systems in Southern Africa: A Review

Managing Climate Risk with Seasonal Forecasts

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