Seasonal prediction of East Asian monsoon precipitation: skill sensitivity to various climate variabilities

Yan, Ying; Chen, Dake

doi:10.1002/joc.4347

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…This is especially relevant here since the predictability of the EASM, and corresponding droughts or flooding, can be improved by accounting for the NAO influence (e.g., Wu et al 2009Wu et al , 2016b. This paper aims to address the shortfalls outlined above.…”

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confidence: 99%

On the link between the subseasonal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Asian climate

Bollasina

Messori

2018

Clim Dyn

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We analyse the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the climate of East Asia at subseasonal time scales during both winter and summer. These teleconections have mainly been investigated at seasonal and longer time scales, while higher-frequency links are largely unexplored. The NAO is defined using extended empirical orthogonal functions on pentad-mean observations, which allows to elucidate the oscillation's spatial and temporal evolution and clearly separate the development and decay phases. The downstream dynamical imprint and associated temperature and precipitation anomalies are quantified by means of a linear regression analysis. It is shown that the NAO generates a significant climate response over East Asia during both the dry and wet seasons, whose spatial pattern is highly dependent on the phase of the NAO's life cycle. Temperature and precipitation anomalies develop concurrently with the NAO mature phase, and reach maximum amplitude 5-10 days later. These are shown to be systematically related to mid and high-latitude teleconnections across the Eurasian continent via eastward-propagating quasi-stationary Rossby waves instigated over the Atlantic and terminating in the northeastern Pacific. These findings underscore the importance of rapidly evolving dynamical processes in governing the NAO's downstream impacts and teleconnections with East Asia.

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confidence: 99%

On the link between the subseasonal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Asian climate

Bollasina

Messori

2018

Clim Dyn

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“…In the precipitation forecasting model, the statistical method and the climate model are widely employed (Shao et al 2017;Wu et al 2018;Mafi Gholami & Baharlouii 2019). When using the statistical method, Wu et al (2015) decomposed a variety of predictive variables by MEOF, and the Markov prediction model was constructed by using spatial models and the corresponding time coefficient. It was found that the model had good prediction skills for precipitation in Northeast Asia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial–temporal distribution and forecasting model of precipitation using dynamic-statistical information fusion

Jing

Wang

et al. 2022

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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In order to explore the evolvement mechanism of hydrometeorological elements, spatial–temporal distribution of precipitation in the Huai river basin is studied by statistical drawing and empirical orthogonal function decomposition. How to make an objective combination for the predictive results of precipitation? Information fusion in data assimilation is introduced to merge the improved National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2) with the multilinear regression model. Firstly, in terms of time, the annual precipitation is apt to decline at most stations within 30 years, and precipitation mainly concentrates in the flood season. The characteristics of spatial distribution are similar to topographic features. It can also be found that precipitation gradually decreases from south to north. Secondly, from statistical forecasting, the relationship between precipitation and global sea surface temperature (SST) is explored. Prediction equation is established with SST and the average precipitation. Thirdly, from dynamic model forecasting, the CFSv2 original model and the CFSv2 statistical downscaling model are used to analyze the influence of model deviation on fusion prediction. The optimum interpolation assimilation method is applied for realizing the optimal integration of statistical and dynamic model prediction. Finally, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is calculated by the combined forecasting of annual precipitation to evaluate drought conditions. The results show that SST is an important factor affecting precipitation, which may be applied as a forecasting direction with other factors. The merged prediction by the CFSv2 original model and the statistical model does not have the great promotion, which is still low than the prediction by the statistical model. The merged prediction by the CFSv2 statistical downscaling model and the statistical model is better than the predictions by the two models, respectively. These indicate that when the prediction difference between the models is large, the merged prediction error cannot be minimized. When the prediction skill levels are equal, there is an improvement in the merged result. So, it is necessary to revise the climate dynamic model by downscaling. What is more, the obtained drought levels match the actual disaster conditions, providing theoretical support of hydrology and meteorology for the prevention of natural disasters.

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“…Summer precipitation in China has a close relation to the thermal effect of TP in spring (Yuan et al ., 2020). The sensible heat over TP was used as a factor to predict Eastern Asian monsoon precipitation (Wu et al ., 2015b). The surface sensible heat over TP in spring can indicate the occurrence of drought and flood downstream of the YZRB (Bai and Xu, 1999; Bai et al ., 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The quantitative comparison of contributions from vapour and temperature to midsummer precipitation in China under the influence of spring heat source over Tibet Plateau

Hao

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The thermal forcing of the Tibet Plateau (TP) causes circulation anomalies that may affect the East Asian monsoon. Hence, summer precipitation in China has a close relation to the previous heat source over TP. The saturation of the atmosphere is the precondition of precipitation, so variations of vapour and temperature adjust the generation of precipitation synergistically. The heating of TP exerts impacts on summer precipitation in China, essentially, through modulating vapour and temperature. The goal of this study is to identify whether the variations of temperature or vapour dominate in the end. Besides, according to the heating characteristics over TP, a more accurate area of spring (March–May) heat source is chosen to indicate the midsummer (July) precipitation in China. The configuration of contributions of temperature and vapour can be divided into two cases. One is that vapour and temperature both increase or decrease, so they play inverse roles. It is easy to find the dominant element in this circumstance. The other is that vapour and temperature have concurrent effects. In this case, their significances need to be further compared. The method based on the linkage of the precipitation and relative humidity is used to quantitatively compare the effects of temperature and vapour. The results are robust and can complement the qualitative analysis with circulations and temperature. In years that there is intense heating on west TP, the Yangtze River basin (YZRB) is controlled by more vapour transport from oceans. The downstream of the Yellow River basin (YLRB) is affected by the dry and cold northerly winds. Dominance analysis shows that vapour general plays a more important role in two major river basins. Maybe not exactly coincide with someone's envision, not all the places are dominated by the vapour. Around northeast China, temperature contributes little more than vapour.

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Seasonal prediction of East Asian monsoon precipitation: skill sensitivity to various climate variabilities

Cited by 9 publications

References 38 publications

On the link between the subseasonal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Asian climate

On the link between the subseasonal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Asian climate

Spatial–temporal distribution and forecasting model of precipitation using dynamic-statistical information fusion

The quantitative comparison of contributions from vapour and temperature to midsummer precipitation in China under the influence of spring heat source over Tibet Plateau

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