Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971–2050)

Abstract

The complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 10 km resolution over the NWMB, using the WRF-ARW regional model. High resolution improves the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation climatologies, with Pearson's correlation against observation being higher for WRF-ARW (0.98 for temperature and 0.81 for precipitation) when compared to the ERA40 reanalysis (0.69 and 0.53, respectively). However, downscaled results slightly underestimate mean temperature (≈1.3 K) and overestimate the precipitation field (≈400 mm/year). Temperature is expected to raise in the NWMB in all considered scenarios (up to 1.4 K for the annual mean), and particularly during summertime and at high altitude areas. Annual mean precipitation is likely to decrease (around −5 % to −13 % for the most extreme scenarios). The climate signal for seasonal precipitation is not so clear, as it is highly influenced by the driving GCM simulation. All scenarios suggest statistically significant decreases of precipitation for mountain ranges in winter and autumn. High resolution simulations of regional climate are potentially useful to decision makers. Nevertheless, uncertainties related to seasonal precipitation projections still persist and have to be addressed.

Evaluation of WRF capability to detect dry and wet periods in Spain using drought indices

“…In this context, Argüeso et al [] demonstrated the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to capture the frequency and the main spatial patterns of rainfall in Spain, which is the most important variable related to drought events. Regarding temperature, which is another key variable for droughts, Gonçalves et al [] have also shown the improvements provided by the dynamical downscaling based on WRF in terms of this variable in this topographically complex region.…”

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

“…and atmospheric research needs. The WRF models have been widely applied in regional simulations [Caldwell et al, 2009;Chotamonsak et al, 2011;Feng et al, 2012;Wang et al, 2012;Gonçalves et al, 2014], and their ability in climatological mean and extreme climate simulations over China has been tested and verified [Yu et al, 2010;Yang et al, 2012]. Moreover, WRF could improve the performance of interannual variations that are presented by its driving data [Yuan et al, 2012;Sato and Xue, 2013].…”

Modelling wind resources in climate change scenarios in complex terrains

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“…(1)), mainly as a consequence of the projected temperature changes. The surface air temperature in the NEIP is projected to increase [36]. The combined effect of those parameters in climate change scenarios could lead to changes up to À70 W m À2 (À20%) in wind energy density in coastal areas and mountain ranges of the NEIP for the A2 scenario (Fig.…”