Seasonality of Coronavirus 229E, HKU1, NL63, and OC43 From 2014 to 2020

Rucinski, Stefanea L.; Binnicker, Matthew J.; Thomas, A.; Patel, Robin

doi:10.1016/j.mayocp.2020.05.032

Cited by 33 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…We found that OC43 was the species that was most commonly detected, which is in line with earlier studies [1–3, 5, 10, 13, 26, 27]. The odds ratio for positive samples in our study was significantly lower for females than males.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Interactions between seasonal human coronaviruses and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective study in Stockholm, Sweden, 2009-2020

Dyrdak

Hodcroft

Wahlund

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Objectives The four seasonal coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 are frequent causes of respiratory infections and show annual and seasonal variation. Increased understanding about these patterns could be informative about the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Methods Results from PCR diagnostics for the seasonal coronaviruses, and other respiratory viruses, were obtained for 55,190 clinical samples analyzed at the Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden, between 14 September 2009 and 2 April 2020. Results Seasonal coronaviruses were detected in 2,130 samples (3.9%). OC43 was most commonly detected (28.4% of detections), followed by NL63 (24.0%), HKU1 (17.6%), and 229E (15.3%). The overall fraction of positive samples was relatively similar between seasons. In contrast, at species level there was distinct pattern of biennial alternating peak seasons for the Alphacoronaviruses, 229E and NL63, and the Betacoronaviruses, OC43 and HKU1, respectively. The Betacoronaviruses peaked earlier in the winter season (Dec-Jan) than the Alphacoronaviruses (Feb-Mar). Coronaviruses were detected across all ages, but diagnostics were more frequently requested for paediatric patients than adults and the elderly. The species showed different age distributions, with OC43 and 229E positivity being relatively constant across age strata, while the incidence of NL63 and HKU1 decreased with age. Conclusions Both the Alphacoronaviruses and Betacoronaviruses showed alternating biennial winter incidence peaks, which suggests some type of immune mediated interaction. Symptomatic reinfections in adults and the elderly appear relatively common. Both findings may be of relevance for the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Interactions between seasonal human coronaviruses and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective study in Stockholm, Sweden, 2009-2020

Dyrdak

Hodcroft

Wahlund

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Seasonal variations in disease incidence can be caused by environmental, behavioral, and immunological factors with the relative importance of these varying by location and disorder ( 15 ). Many infectious diseases show seasonal variations ( 16 ) in incidence and mortality, including those caused by coronaviruses ( 17 , 18 ). Seasonality for coronaviruses may be more likely in temperate climates (which have more distinct seasons and wider temperature ranges) than tropical climates ( 19 ).…”

Section: Uv Light Sun Exposure and Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Potential for Ultraviolet Light to Modulate Morbidity and Mortality From COVID-19: A Narrative Review and Update

Gorman

Weller

2020

Front. Cardiovasc. Med.

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During the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease of 2019) pandemic, researchers have been seeking low-cost and accessible means of providing protection from its harms, particularly for at-risk individuals such as those with cardiovascular disease, diabetes and obesity. One possible way is via safe sun exposure, and/or dietary supplementation with induced beneficial mediators (e.g., vitamin D). In this narrative review, we provide rationale and updated evidence on the potential benefits and harms of sun exposure and ultraviolet (UV) light that may impact COVID-19. We review recent studies that provide new evidence for any benefits (or otherwise) of UV light, sun exposure, and the induced mediators, vitamin D and nitric oxide, and their potential to modulate morbidity and mortality induced by infection with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus-2). We identified substantial interest in this research area, with many commentaries and reviews already published; however, most of these have focused on vitamin D, with less consideration of UV light (or sun exposure) or other mediators such as nitric oxide. Data collected to-date suggest that ambient levels of both UVA and UVB may be beneficial for reducing severity or mortality due to COVID-19, with some inconsistent findings. Currently unresolved are the nature of the associations between blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D and COVID-19 measures, with more prospective data needed that better consider lifestyle factors, such as physical activity and personal sun exposure levels. Another short-coming has been a lack of measurement of sun exposure, and its potential to influence COVID-19 outcomes. We also discuss possible mechanisms by which sun exposure, UV light and induced mediators could affect COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, by focusing on likely effects on viral pathogenesis, immunity and inflammation, and potential cardiometabolic protective mechanisms. Finally, we explore potential issues including the impacts of exposure to high dose UV radiation on COVID-19 and vaccination, and effective and safe doses for vitamin D supplementation.

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“…Therefore, urban spaces and environmental seasonality drivers are the main cause of aperiodic and unstable behavior for SARS-COV-2 spreading patterns worldwide. It is likely that environmental driven seasonality results found in many studies are, in truth, HPALE and urban spaces results, representing a need for further detailed research [48].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is possible to verify that most of these SIR models are constructed based on ε p seasonality behaviors [45][46][47][48]. Following this phase, urban spaces and HPALE interventions might present a strong influence on the outcomes due to the unpredictability of S and R patterns to design appropriate contact rates, which still represents a limitation for the SIR model methods [27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34].…”

Section: Sir Model Redefinition From the Original Equation To Skewness Patterns And Global Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-COV-2: SIR Model Limitations and Predictive Constraints

Telles¹,

Lopes

Franco

2021

Symmetry

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Background: The main purpose of this research is to describe the mathematical asymmetric patterns of susceptible, infectious, or recovered (SIR) model equation application in the light of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) skewness patterns worldwide. Methods: The research modeled severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) spreading and dissemination patterns sensitivity by redesigning time series data extraction of daily new cases in terms of deviation consistency concerning variables that sustain COVID-19 transmission. The approach opened a new scenario where seasonality forcing behavior was introduced to understand SARS-COV-2 non-linear dynamics due to heterogeneity and confounding epidemics scenarios. Results: The main research results are the elucidation of three birth- and death-forced seasonality persistence phases that can explain COVID-19 skew patterns worldwide. They are presented in the following order: (1) the environmental variables (Earth seasons and atmospheric conditions); (2) health policies and adult learning education (HPALE) interventions; (3) urban spaces (local indoor and outdoor spaces for transit and social-cultural interactions, public or private, with natural physical features (river, lake, terrain). Conclusions: Three forced seasonality phases (positive to negative skew) phases were pointed out as a theoretical framework to explain uncertainty found in the predictive SIR model equations that might diverge in outcomes expected to express the disease’s behaviour.

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Seasonality of Coronavirus 229E, HKU1, NL63, and OC43 From 2014 to 2020

Cited by 33 publications

References 10 publications

Interactions between seasonal human coronaviruses and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective study in Stockholm, Sweden, 2009-2020

Interactions between seasonal human coronaviruses and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective study in Stockholm, Sweden, 2009-2020

Investigating the Potential for Ultraviolet Light to Modulate Morbidity and Mortality From COVID-19: A Narrative Review and Update

SARS-COV-2: SIR Model Limitations and Predictive Constraints

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