Seasonally Dependent Change of the Number of Fractures after 50 Years of Age in Poland—Analysis of Combined Health Care and Climate Datasets

Jedynasty, Kinga; Zięba, Mariusz; Adamski, Jakub; Czech, Marcin; Głuszko, Piotr; Gozdowski, Dariusz; Szypowska, Agnieszka; Śliwczyński, Andrzej; Walicka, Magdalena; Franek, Edward

doi:10.3390/ijerph19159467

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…We observed a downward trend in hip fracture events irrespective how fractures were ascertained, nding it with a naïve analysis, with o cial Swedish statistics as well as with our more accurate algorithm-based approach. The same downward trend has also been seen in other European settings (31)(32)(33)(34), while trends have plateaued in North America (35). In contrast, hip fracture rates are increasing in Asia (36-39).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998-2019 and consequences for projections through 2050

Michaëlsson

Baron

Byberg

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Although it may seem trivial to use national diagnosis databases to identify the number of patients, analyze time trends, and make projections, here we use hip fracture to illustrate the complexity and difficulty of estimating the reliable number of injury events. Readmissions after the index hip fracture are common, and register identification of a real second fracture is crucial for data accuracy. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the absolute and age-standardized number of hip fractures in Sweden during the past two decades to produce time trends and future projections. We also illustrate how the naïve use of register data leads to invalid estimates. We used nationwide Swedish register data from 1998 to 2019 and a validated algorithm to calculate the annual absolute and age-standardized number of incident hip fractures over time. According to our algorithm, the total hip fracture burden was 335,399 incident events over the 22-year period, with a change from 16,180 in 1998 to 13,929 in 2019, a 14% decrease. One decade after the index hip fracture event, 80% of the patients had died and 11% had a new hip fracture. After considering the steady growth of the older population, the decline in the age-standardized number of hip fractures was 30%. With a continued similar reduction in hip fracture incidence, we can predict that 14,800 hip fractures will occur in 2034 and 12,000 in 2050 despite a doubling of the oldest old (≥80 years). Without an algorithm, a naïve estimate of the total number of hip fractures over the study period was 539,947, with a second 10-year hip fracture risk of 35%. Accordingly, the naïve use of register data can dramatically inflate estimates of the number of fractures. We note an ongoing decline in absolute and age-standardized actual number of hip fractures in Sweden, with consequences for future projections.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998-2019 and consequences for projections through 2050

Michaëlsson

Baron

Byberg

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…[ 27 ] Additionally, Kinga et al found that changes in fracture incidence were related to season (warmer vs colder) and the increase in mean temperature during the observation period. [ 28 ] This could be due to the need for thicker clothing in cold weather, resulting in repeated movements due to the inconvenience of exposing the affected limb during the emergency examination. Furthermore, cold weather may negatively impact patients’ exposure to the external environment at the time of injury and during ambulance transport, potentially leading to hypothermia, which can have detrimental effects on trauma patients’ metabolic and coagulation systems.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Blister formation in acute compartment syndrome: Unraveling the underlying predictors

Long,

Yang,

Guo

et al. 2024

Medicine

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Blisters are a common complication of orthopedic trauma and can cause surgery delay and increase the risk of infection. This study aims to identify risk factors for blisters in patients with acute compartment syndrome (ACS). Our study collected data from 206 ACS patients admitted to 2 hospitals between November 2013 and January 2021. Patients were divided into 2 groups: the blister group (BG) and the control group (CG), based on the presence or absence of blisters. We conducted univariate analysis, logistic regression analysis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to identify any significant differences in demographics, comorbidities, and admission laboratory test results between the 2 groups. Our study found that the incidence of blisters in ACS patients was 21.8% (45 out of 206). Univariate analysis identified several factors that were significantly associated with blister formation. Logistic regression analysis showed that patients who developed ACS in the winter or spring (P = .007, OR = 2.690, 95% CI [1.308–5.534]), patients who received a referral (the process whereby patients are transferred between medical facilities for further evaluation and treatment attempts prior to admission to our hospital) (P = .009, OR = 4.235, 95% CI [1.432–12.527]), and patients with higher PLR (P = .036, OR = 1.005, 95% CI [1.000–1.009]) were independent risk factors for blisters. Additionally, a history of drinking (P = .039, OR = 0.027, 95% CI [0.046–0.927]) was found to be a protective factor for blister formation in these patients. Moreover, ROC curve analysis showed that a PLR value of 138 was the cutoff point for predicting the development of blisters in ACS patients. Our study identified seasonal factors (refer to these months like winter or spring), referral, and patients with higher PLR as independent risk factors, and a history of drinking as a protective factor for blister formation in ACS patients. These findings allow clinicians to individualize the evaluation of blister risk and perform early targeted therapies.

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“…and the increase of mean temperature during the observation period [29]. This could be due to the cold weather requiring thicker and additional clothing, resulting in repeated movements due to the inconvenience of exposing the affected limb during the emergency examination.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictors of blisters in patients with acute compartment syndrome

Long

Wang

Yang

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Introduction: Blisters, one of the most common complications of orthopedic trauma, can result in surgery delay and increase the risk of infection. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for blisters in patients with acute compartment syndrome (ACS). Methods: We gathered data from two hospitals' 206 ACS patients from November 2013 to January 2021. Patients were divided into the blister group (BG) and the control group (CG) according to whether they had blisters or not. We used univariate analysis, logistic regression analysis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine the demographics, comorbidities, and admission laboratory tests. Results: In our research, the incidence of blisters was 21.8 % (45 of 206). Univariate analysis showed that numerous factors were releated to the formation of blisters. According to logistic regression analysis, patients who developed ACS in the winter or spring (p = 0.007, OR = 2.690, 95% CI (1.308 to 5.534), patients who received a referral (p = 0.009, OR = 4.235, 95% CI (1.432 to 12.527), and patients with higher PLR (p = 0.036, OR = 1.005, 95% CI (1.000 to 1.009) were independent risk factors for blisters. In addition, a history of drinking (p = 0.039, OR = 0.027, 95% CI (0.046 to 0.927)) represented a protective factor for the formation of blisters in these patients. ROC curve analysis revealed that 138.17 was the cut-off value of PLR to predict the blister. Furthermore, the combination of seasonal factors, PLR, and referral had the highest diagnostic accuracy. Conclusions: Our findings identified seasonal factors, referral, and patients with higher PLR as independent risk factors while a history of drinking as protective factor for blisters in ACS patients, allowing us to individualize the evaluation of the risk of blisters in order to perform early targeted therapies.

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Seasonally Dependent Change of the Number of Fractures after 50 Years of Age in Poland—Analysis of Combined Health Care and Climate Datasets

Cited by 4 publications

References 36 publications

Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998-2019 and consequences for projections through 2050

Declining hip fracture burden in Sweden 1998-2019 and consequences for projections through 2050

Blister formation in acute compartment syndrome: Unraveling the underlying predictors

Predictors of blisters in patients with acute compartment syndrome

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