Sector‐specific scenarios for future stocks and flows of aluminum: An analysis based on shared socioeconomic pathways

Abstract

Aluminum is an energy-intensive material that is typically used as an alloy. The environmental impacts caused by its production can potentially be spread out over multiple uses through repeated recycling loops. However, inter-alloy contamination can limit the circularity of aluminum, which highlights the importance of analyzing prospective stock dynamics of aluminum at an alloy and alloying element level to inform a more sustainable management of this resource. A dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) of aluminum alloys was developed in line with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) framework to generate consistent scenarios of the evolution of aluminum stocks and flows from 2015 to 2100 covering 11 economic sectors in 5 world regions. A sectorspecific and bottom-up modeling approach was developed. Results show no saturation of global stock per capita before 2100, reaching a range between 200 and 400 kg per capita according to different socioeconomic scenarios. For the business-as-usual scenario, the global annual inflow rises to 100 Mt in 2050 and peaks at 130 Mt in 2090, showing a saturation in total stock. Electricity-sector demand has the highest relative growth over the century, while building and construction demand saturates and decreases from 2090. No major mismatch between inflows and outflows of aluminum alloy is observed. This means that with appropriate dismantling and sorting, changes in alloy demand would not limit the implementation of a closed-loop aluminum industry. This study demonstrates the advantages of combining detailed MFAs and SSPs, both for greater consistency in circular economy modeling and for furthering scenario development efforts. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges

Material and Carbon Footprints of Machinery Capital

“…This seems to suggest that new investments replaced existing stocks rather than added to them. The same saturation trend has been inferred for other metals. ,− Consequently, we must ask: Could a similar trend be observed in the material and carbon footprints of machinery assets?…”

The effect of the refractory material on the phase transformation parameteres during forming of the Al-8wt%Si-3wt%Cu structure

“…Aluminijum je, posle čelika, metal sa najvećom primenom u savremenom svetu zbog svoje niske specifične težine, visokog odnosa zatezne čvrstoće i težine, otpornosti na koroziju, električne i toplotne provodljivosti, netoksičnosti, i još drugih svojstava. Veličina globalnog tržišta aluminijuma i legura na bazi aluminijuma koje su dobijene nekom od metoda mešanja u tečnom stanju i kasnijim očvršćavanjem je procenjena na 86,92 milijarde dolara u 2021. i očekuje se da će premašiti 100 milijardi dolara u 2026. godini [1].…”

Material requirements and impacts of the building sector in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

“…Over the past years, several studies have proposed ex-post estimations of material requirements in SSPs. Marinova et al (2020) and Deetman et al (2020) analyzed the regional need for base materials for residential and service buildings in the SSP2, Pedneault et al (2022) estimated global future aluminum stocks and flows for six sectors and all SPPs while Klose and Pauliuk (2023) studied the global copper requirements in the SSP2. The estimation in this study align well with Pedneault et al (2022) for aluminum, with Deetman et al (2020) for steel, concrete and copper and are higher than in Klose and Pauliuk (2023) for copper.…”