Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

Averyt, Kristen; Meldrum, James R.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steven G.; Huber-Lee, Annette; Madden, Nadia

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035046

Cited by 99 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The region is one of the wettest parts of the US, receiving 700-1600 mm of precipitation per year. However, due to population growth and associated increased use of surface and groundwater resources, the future is expected to bring water stress for this area (Averyt et al, 2013). Some of these changes are already being observed.…”

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confidence: 99%

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

Sadri

Kam

Sheffield

2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of low flows as well as their generation mechanisms over large geographic regions can provide valuable insights and understanding for climate change impacts, regional frequency analysis, risk assessment of extreme events, and decisionmaking regarding allowable withdrawals. The goal of this paper is to examine nonstationarity in low flow generation across the eastern US and explore the potential anthropogenic influences or climate drivers. We use nonparametric tests to identify abrupt and gradual changes in time series of low flows and their timing for 508 USGS streamflow gauging sites in the eastern US with more than 50 years of daily data, to systematically distinguish the effects of human intervention from those of climate variability. A time series decomposition algorithm was applied to 1-day, 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day annual low flow time series that combines the Box-Ljung test for detection of autocorrelation, the Pettitt test for abrupt step changes and the Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trends. Examination of the USGS notes for each site showed that many of the sites with step changes and around half of the sites with an increasing trend have been documented as having some kind of regulation. Sites with decreasing or no trend are less likely to have documented influences on flows. Overall, a general pattern of increasing low flows in the northeast and decreasing low flows in the southeast is evident over a common time period , even when discarding sites with significant autocorrelation, documented regulation or other human impacts. The north-south pattern of trends is consistent with changes in antecedent precipitation. The main exception is along the mid-Atlantic coastal aquifer system from eastern Virginia northwards, where low flows have decreased despite increasing precipitation, and suggests that declining groundwater levels due to pumping may have contributed to decreased low flows. For most sites, the majority of low flows occur in one season in the late summer to fall, as driven by the lower precipitation and higher evaporative demand in this season, but this is complicated in many regions because of the presence of a secondary low flow season in the winter for sites in the extreme northeast and in the spring for sites in Florida. Trends in low flow timing are generally undetectable, although abrupt step changes appear to be associated with regulation.

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confidence: 99%

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

Sadri

Kam

Sheffield

2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…The WaSSI model simulates the full monthly water (ET, Q, and soil moisture storage) and carbon balances (GPP, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem productivity) for each land cover class at the given watershed scale. This model has been tested in a variety of geographical regions, and widely used for quantitatively assessing combined or individual effects of climate change, land use/cover change (LUCC), and population dynamics on water supply stress and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon dynamic) over the CONUS (Sun et al, , 2011aLockaby et al, 2011;Caldwell et al, 2012;Averyt et al, 2013;Tavernia et al, 2013;Marion et al, 2014;Sun et al, 2015a, b). The model has also been applied internationally in Mexico, China (Liu et al, 2013b), and Africa (McNulty et al, 2016).…”

Section: The Wassi Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data

Sun

Cohen

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and ecosystem adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) using dynamically downscaled climate data of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the coterminous US (CONUS). Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P ) of 45 mm yr −1 (6 %), 1.8 • C increase in temperature (T ), 37 mm yr −1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr −1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 gC m −2 yr −1 (9 %) increase in GPP. We found a large spatial variability in response to climate change across the CONUS 12-digit HUC watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases all variables evaluated. Over half of the watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest, would see an increase in annual Q (> 100 mm yr −1 or 20 %). In addition, we also evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or two-digit HUCs. The study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results may be useful for policy-makers and land managers to formulate appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

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“…The WaSSI model has been used to assess the combined or separate effects of climate change, land cover change and anthropogenic water use on historic and future water supply stress and ecosystem productivity over the US, Mexico, China and several African countries (Lockaby et al, 2011;Averyt et al, 2013;Tavernia et al, 2013;Liu et al, 2013;McNulty et al, 2015). For this study, the focus is on the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on annual and long term water yield.…”

Section: The Wassi Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Water Budgets and Water Supply Stress under Climate Change and Urbanization in the Upper Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, USA

Sun¹,

Sun²,

Liu³

et al. 2015

American Journal of Environmental Sciences

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Urbanization and climate change are the two major threats to watersheds and the environment in the United States. It is imperative to understand the sensitivity of hydrologic responses to climate and urbanization across different physiographic regions in order to formulate sound watershed management strategies and policies. This study evaluated a watershed water balance model, Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI), with measured historic streamflow data for the Upper Neuse River basin in central North Carolina. A user-friendly web version of the WaSSI model was applied to examine how climate change and potential urbanization over the next 50 years may affect streamflow (or water yield) of this river basin and water supply stress (water demand/water supply). Our simulation study suggested that urbanization could increase water yield (8%), while climate change could reduce (30%) water yield depending on future changes in precipitation and warming potential in the study basin. Climate change is likely to overwhelm the basin-wide impacts of urbanization in terms of its influences on water supply stress, but urbanization may aggravate the environmental problems by increasing stormflow and water quality degradation under a changing climate. Future climatic change models should reduce the uncertainty of climate projection in precipitation, a major control on watershed hydrology.

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Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

Cited by 99 publications

References 24 publications

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

Nonstationarity of low flows and their timing in the eastern United States

Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data

Future Water Budgets and Water Supply Stress under Climate Change and Urbanization in the Upper Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, USA

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