Security of Energy Supply and Gas Diversification in Poland

Weiner, Csaba

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3257335

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…The development of renewable energy is associated with the independence of individual national economies from external supplies, which is part of a wider issue of energy security [96][97][98]. Political factors have always played an important role in the geographical diversification of energy supplies [99][100][101][102]. It is reflected in CEE countries by their striving to become independent of raw materials from Russia [78].…”

Section: New (Old) Challenges Of the Energy Transformationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Green Energy in Central and Eastern European (CEE) Countries: New Challenges on the Path to Sustainable Development

Pakulska

2021

Energies

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In the conditions of climate change and the scarcity of natural resources, the future of energy is increasingly associated with the development of the so-called green energy. Its development is reflected in the European Commission strategic vision to transition to a climate-neutral economy. This is a challenge that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, members of the EU, are also trying to meet. In recent years, these countries have seen an increase in the share of renewable energy and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GGE). On the other hand, basing the energy sector on unstable energy sources (photovoltaics and wind technologies) may imply new challenges on the way to sustainable development. These are old problems in a new version (ecology, diversification of supplies) and new ones related to the features of renewable energy sources (RES; instability, dispersion). The aim of the article was to classify, on the basis of taxonomic methods, the CEE countries from the point of view of green energy transformation (original indicator) and to predict new threats to Romania, Poland, and Bulgaria, the countries representing different groups according to the applied classification. The issues presented are part of a holistic view of RES and can be useful in energy policy.

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Section: New (Old) Challenges Of the Energy Transformationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Green Energy in Central and Eastern European (CEE) Countries: New Challenges on the Path to Sustainable Development

Pakulska

2021

Energies

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“…In the Central European transit countries, it happened in the form of long-term capacity bookings on the Czech and Slovak gas transmission system, which has weakened opposition in those countries. Hungary has benefited from unusual flexibility from the Russian side on adjusting long term gas supply contract terms 2013-2019, and parallel negotiations related to nuclear power plant investments made strong opposition of Nord Stream 2 incredible.Poland has been the only country opposing Russian pipeline politics consistently and based on political sentiments rather than based on economic considerations(Weiner, 2018).8.4 ConclusionsDevelopments on the global level challenged the status quo on natural gas markets in the EU in the analysed period of 2009-2020. The US was pushing for more space for its LNG exports and Russia was trying to protect itsestablished position in the EU markets based on a reshaped pipeline infrastructure that is bypassing Ukraine.…”

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Natural gas pipeline politics in and around the European Union Modelling – based assessment of Russian and European strategies

Takácsné Tóth

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In the last 20 years, the growing reliance of the EU on gas imports increased the vulnerability of the energy system to supply shocks. Natural gas is difficult to substitute in the short term due to the high share of gas in space heating and electricity generation in most of the EU Member States. Russia has been supplying gas to the EU since the 1970s and reached a 35% market share by 2020. There has always been some cautiousness with ’red gas’ during the Sovjet era, but trust in Russian gas supplies was first time seriously questioned by Western European policymakers in January 2009. At that time transit via Ukraine was halted for two weeks because of a dispute over gas transit between Russia and Ukraine. Since that time the EU and Russia developed parallel strategies to mitigate this transit risk. This dissertation focuses on the power politics surrounding the natural gas pipeline projects planned and implemented between 2009-2020 with a special focus on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which became a symbolic project of power politics. The dissertation applies an interdisciplinary approach and uses geopolitical, legal and economic arguments to explain the pipeline strategies and their implementation. In the analytical chapters, the main analytical tool is gas market modelling to compare different pipeline and policy options from the European welfare and the Russian profit point of view. The dissertation aims to answer the following questions: Question 1.: How would Russian Gazprom use the Ukrainian infrastructure under different combinations of availability of the new routes, if it were a profit-maximizing actor? Question 2.: How successful was the EU’s pipeline strategy in infrastructure planning, in selecting and implementing the right projects of common interests between 2013-2020 to improve the resilience of the EU gas markets to supply shocks and growing market power of upstream supplies? Question 3.: How did the European and the Russian pipeline strategies influence each other under a worsening geopolitical EURussia relationship between 2009-2020? The timeframe of the dissertation is 2009-2020, which is the era when the security of supply-related legislation forming was dominating the EU legislative agenda in the natural gas sector. The geographical coverage of the analysis is the territory of the European Union plus the Energy Community Contracting Parties, Russia, and Turkey The novelty of the dissertation is the advanced use of gas market modelling on geopolitical scenarios to inform policymakers of the cost and the socio-economic benefits of certain policy decisions. The dissertation was based on three modelling chapters connected by the analytical framework of Russian and European natural gas pipeline investment developments between 2009-2020. The scenarios applied reflected the latest state of play at the time of the respective analysis. The analytical framework and the methodology applied proved to be useful tools to address high-level questions on pipeline politics. The changing environment was reflected in changing input data and scenario definition and the analytical approach can be applied to new questions in the future, like the full substitution of Russian gas supplies to Europe. - The dissertation contributes to previous academic research done in the field of regulation of natural monopolies especially in the field of energy networks by assessing with market modelling tools the use of different pipeline routes and marketing strategies of Russia. (Chapter Error! Reference source not found.) - Modelling applied in the dissertation contributes to the understanding of how changing parameters of the long-term contracts (annual contract quantity, flexibility, and especially change in delivery point and capacity bookings along the route) impact wholesale gas prices of the European countries and the welfare of the citizens. The dissertation adds to the modelling literature the Russian perspective, by applying profit maximization to the Russian sales strategy when selling spot volumes to the European market complementary to long-term contract deliveries. (Chapter 5) - The dissertation also contributes to the development of a methodological sound modelling-based cost-benefit analysis of infrastructure investment applied to the European gas PCI projects. (Chapters Error! Reference source not found. and Error! Reference source not found.) Thereby the competitive nature of the European and the Russian pipeline strategy is captured which is new in the literature.

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Security of Energy Supply and Gas Diversification in Poland

Weiner

2018

SSRN Journal

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Poland entered the twenty-first century with an unsustainable energy/electricity mix, strongly overdependent on coal. This situation seems to be changing very slowly, while there are multiple factors that make it imperative for the issue to be urgently addressed. On the one hand, this paper aims to assess the security of the stationary fuel supply by applying the conventional three-dimensional approach, encompassing availability, affordability and sustainability. On the other, we plan to use our own scheme to analyse gas diversification (Weiner, 2017: 6), i.e. a fuel which, alongside coal, is a very sensitive issue linked to the security of the Polish electric power fuel supply. We demonstrate that the three-dimensional approach is also appropriate for addressing the issue of supply security in the case of a country with a securitized energy agenda based on fears of problems with the availability and affordability of Russian gas supplies. It also highlights Poland's concern over foreign technological reliance regarding renewables production. We show how the energy perspective, the institutional context, as well as perceptions regarding threat, dependence and Russia influence choices made from among different security of supply dimensions. We find that though the role of coal will surely decrease, there is great uncertainty about Poland's energy policy and security of supply because of deficiencies in infrastructure and the unknown future role of the particular fuels in the energy/electricity mix, also expected to include nuclear. We can observe that every energy policy step possible is being taken to maintain the role of coal, and Poland moves toward sustainability only as much and as soon as it is required by its EU membership. Not only does the coal industry capture Poland's energy policy, but also geopolitical considerations cement reliance on coal, providing low energy import dependence. Regarding gas, we find that since the January 2009 Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis, Poland has taken action to diversify its gas supplies, and it has finally achieved results, but there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Russian gas imports.

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Security of Energy Supply and Gas Diversification in Poland

Cited by 3 publications

References 53 publications

Green Energy in Central and Eastern European (CEE) Countries: New Challenges on the Path to Sustainable Development

Green Energy in Central and Eastern European (CEE) Countries: New Challenges on the Path to Sustainable Development

Natural gas pipeline politics in and around the European Union Modelling – based assessment of Russian and European strategies

Security of Energy Supply and Gas Diversification in Poland

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