Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast

Abstract

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes.

Understanding perceptions of changing hurricane strength along the US Gulf coast

“…Meanwhile, the powerful influence of maximum wind speed associated with the last landfalling hurricane does not disappear in the presence of belief in climate change. This result is somewhat surprising given that similar studies all point to the dominant explanatory power of pre‐existing beliefs (Brody et al , ; Shao, ; Shao and Goidel, ). Meanwhile, it demonstrates the powerful role that maximum wind speed at landfall plays in shaping one's perceptions of past hurricane strength.…”

“…Gender and party identification stand out as significant factors among all the individual‐level characteristics. Consistent with previous studies on perceptions of extreme weather (Shao, ; Shao and Goidel, ), females and Democrats are more likely than males and Republicans to perceive an upward trend of hurricane strength in their local counties. In the existing literature, women are consistently found to be positively correlated with perceptions of climate change (Hamilton and Keim, ; Borick and Rabe, ; McCright and Dunlap, ) and possess more concern for this issue (Hamilton, ; McCright, ; Shao et al , ).…”

“…The attributes of any extreme events in the recent past should leave deep imprints in one's mind, which is supported by some empirical evidence (i.e. Stefanovic, ; Shao, ; Shao and Goidel, ), and possibly owing to either their own experience of damage or local media reporting the intensity.…”

“…No variables of self‐reported attentiveness and use of specific sources of information are statistically significant, indicating that hurricane experiences are not being mediated by local news or weather/climate coverage. The result of belief in climate change is consistent with previous studies (Shao, ; Shao and Goidel, ) and the theory of confirmation bias that individuals who believe in current climate change are much more likely to see increasing hurricane strength than those who do not. Moreover, when controlling for the effects of belief in climate change, party identification has become insignificant in the model, which indicates climate change has become a political polarizing force.…”

“…For any substantive planning for hurricanes to take place, however, society must perceive the problem, and often there is a disconnect between perception and reality when it comes to weather and climate (Goebbert et al, 2012;Howe and Leiserowitz, 2013;Shao, 2015;Shao and Goidel, 2016). Also, Meyer et al (2014) found that residents tend to over-estimate the risks of hurricane-force winds and under-estimate the threat posed by flooding during hurricane events.…”