SEIR-SW, simulation model of influenza spread based on the Small World network

Abstract

This study modeled the spread of an influenza epidemic in the population of Oran, Algeria. We investigated the mathematical epidemic model, SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed), through extensive simulations of the effects of social network on epidemic spread in a Small World (SW) network, to understand how an influenza epidemic spreads through a human population. A combined SEIR-SW model was built, to help understand the dynamics of infectious disease in a community, and to identify the main characteristics of epidemic transmission and its evolution over time. The model was also used to examine social network effects to better understand the topological structure of social contact and the impact of its properties. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the combined SEIR-SW model. Simulation results were analyzed to explore how network evolution influences the spread of desease, and statistical tests were applied to validate the model. The model accurately replicated the dynamic behavior of the real influenza epidemic data, confirming that the susceptible size and topological structure of social networks in a human population significantly influence the spread of infectious diseases. Our model can provide health policy decision makers with a better understanding of epidemic spread, allowing them to implement control measures. It also provides an early warning of the emergence of influenza epidemics.

Continuous learning and inference of individual probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on interaction data

“… , where q refers to the number of people’s infected states at time t ; We use seven kinds of states, which are susceptible S , susceptible_and_ quarantined Sq , exposed E , exposed_and_ quarantine Eq , infected I , hospitalized H , and recovered R . There is some dependency between these states of a SEIR model 18 . The system aims to give out the ranking by order of priority of infection, people between two infected people first then Exposure people as E and then Susceptible people as S , as described in Fig.…”

“…The SEIR model (Definition of Input 2 Fig. 2 ) 18 refers to the flows of people between four states: S holds susceptible people, E contains exposed people incubating the disease (and possibly some that are infectious, however, the numbers of infected people are insufficient for the confirmed infected), I holds confirmed infected people, and R recovered people. There are the states, Susceptible quarantined Sq , Exposed quarantined Eq , and Hospitalized H , are taken into consideration as Fig.…”

Dynamics of disease spread. Effect of the characteristic times

“…However, the effect of this time on disease spread was not investigated. More recently, these characteristic times were introduced in order to simulate historical data on influenza [29] (here, the data of survey was collected every week). The time evolution of the infection has shown a nonlinear increase with plateaus of two weeks.…”

Limited Resources Optimization of Health Care Services With a Linear Integer Programming Approach

“…Modeling and simulation are important tools in resolving epidemic epidemics (outbreaks of disease in certain communities / regions that exceed normal or normal numbers) that occur suddenly, to understand the spread of epidemics in connected networks, some models are proposed and studied. In a study conducted by Younsi, it discussed the problem of spreading epidemics on social networks by building and analyzing the nature of small world networks [13]. Social networking, family groups, neighbors, circle of friends, and health care systems are classic examples as key roles in human activities and life, modeling pariative care networks as a special type of health care system using an agent-based approach, this model provides a framework for studying various aspects of the system from both perspectives that focus on improving the quality of life of patients with lifethreatening or near-death diseases, addressing this problem is done by providing various support services to help patients be more active and comfortable in living the rest of their lives [14].…”