This study modeled the spread of an influenza epidemic in the population of Oran, Algeria. We investigated the mathematical epidemic model, SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed), through extensive simulations of the effects of social network on epidemic spread in a Small World (SW) network, to understand how an influenza epidemic spreads through a human population. A combined SEIR-SW model was built, to help understand the dynamics of infectious disease in a community, and to identify the main characteristics of epidemic transmission and its evolution over time. The model was also used to examine social network effects to better understand the topological structure of social contact and the impact of its properties. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the combined SEIR-SW model. Simulation results were analyzed to explore how network evolution influences the spread of desease, and statistical tests were applied to validate the model. The model accurately replicated the dynamic behavior of the real influenza epidemic data, confirming that the susceptible size and topological structure of social networks in a human population significantly influence the spread of infectious diseases. Our model can provide health policy decision makers with a better understanding of epidemic spread, allowing them to implement control measures. It also provides an early warning of the emergence of influenza epidemics.
In the published paper, the second author name was printed wrongly. The second author name should be read as \Ahmed Bounekkar". The Editorial O±ce apologizes for any inconvenience that it may have caused.
Influenza has been a growing concern for the public health decision makers/policy makers. Indeed, they are in need of a real geo-making tool for monitoring and surveillance. The chapter aims to introduce a novel spatiotemporal decision system based on multicriteria ranking method, information geographic system (GIS), and SEIRSW system for public health. The later was designed, implemented, and validated in previous research for influenza risk assessment. The authors highlight the use of PROMETHEE II ranking method of multi-criteria decision analysis in GIS that incorporates various factors to monitor and identify potential high-risk areas of seasonal influenza and disease mapping. Factors related to the risk of seasonal influenza are obtained from simulation system and constitute the input values of PROMETHEE II ranking method for the 26 communes of the city of Oran, Algeria. The proposed system has demonstrated analytical capabilities in targeting high-risk spots and influenza surveillance monitoring system and it can help public health policy makers prioritize in their response goals and evaluate control strategies.
Accounting for about 290,000–650,000 deaths across the globe, seasonal influenza is estimated by the World Health Organization to be a major cause of mortality. Hence, there is a need for a reliable and robust epidemiological surveillance decision‐making system to understand and combat this epidemic disease. In a previous study, the authors proposed a decision support system to fight against seasonal influenza. This system is composed of three subsystems: (i) modeling and simulation, (ii) data warehousing, and (iii) analysis. The analysis subsystem relies on spatial online analytical processing (S‐OLAP) technology. Although the S‐OLAP technology is useful in analyzing multidimensional spatial data sets, it cannot take into account the inherent multicriteria nature of seasonal influenza risk assessment by itself. Therefore, the objective of this article is to extend the existing decision support system by adding advanced multicriteria analysis capabilities for enhanced seasonal influenza risk assessment and monitoring. Bearing in mind the characteristics of the decision problem considered in this article, a well‐known multicriteria classification method, the dominance‐based rough set approach (DRSA), was selected to boost the existing decision support system. Combining the S‐OLAP technology and the multicriteria classification method DRSA in the same decision support system will largely improve and extend the scope of analysis capabilities. The extended decision support system has been validated by its application to assess seasonal influenza risk in the northwest region of Algeria.
In this paper, the authors propose a surveillance and spatiotemporal visualization system to simulate the infectious diseases spread which enables users to make decisions during a simulated pandemic. This system is based on compartment Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Removed (SEIR) model within a Small World network and Geographic Information System. The main advantage of this system is that it allows not only to understand how epidemic spreads in the human population and which risk factors promote this transmission but also to visualize epidemic outbreaks on the region's map. Experiments results reflect significantly the dynamical behavior of the influenza epidemic and the system can provide significant guidelines for decision makers when coping with epidemic diffusion controlling problems.
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