32Lassa virus is a significant burden on human health throughout its endemic region in 33 West Africa, with most human infections the result of spillover from the primary rodent 34 reservoir of the virus, the natal multimammate mouse, M. natalensis. Here we develop a 35 Bayesian methodology for estimating epidemiological parameters of Lassa virus within its 36 rodent reservoir and for generating probabilistic predictions for the efficacy of rodent 37 vaccination programs. Our approach uses Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to 38 integrate mechanistic mathematical models, remotely-sensed precipitation data, and Lassa 39 virus surveillance data from rodent populations. Using simulated data, we show that our 40 method accurately estimates key model parameters, even when surveillance data are available 41 from only a relatively small number of points in space and time. Applying our method to 42 previously published data from two villages in Guinea estimates the time-averaged of Lassa 0 43 virus to be 1.658 and 1.453 for rodent populations in the villages of Bantou and Tanganya, 44 respectively. Using the posterior distribution for model parameters derived from these 45 Guinean populations, we evaluate the likely efficacy of vaccination programs relying on 46 distribution of vaccine-laced baits. Our results demonstrate that effective and durable 47 reductions in the risk of Lassa virus spillover into the human population will require repeated 48 distribution of large quantities of vaccine. 49 3 50 Author Summary 51 Lassa virus is a chronic source of illness throughout West Africa, and is considered to be a threat 52 for widespread emergence. Because most human infections result from contact with infected 53 rodents, interventions that reduce the number of rodents infected with Lassa virus represent 54 promising opportunities for reducing the public health burden of this disease. Evaluating how 55 well alternative interventions are likely to perform is complicated by our relatively poor 56 understanding of viral epidemiology within the reservoir population. Here we develop a novel 57 statistical approach that couples mathematical models and viral surveillance data from rodent 58 populations to robustly estimate key epidemiological parameters. Applying our method to 59 existing data from Guinea yields well-resolved parameter estimates and allows us to simulate a 60 variety of rodent vaccination programs. Together, our results demonstrate that rodent 61 vaccination alone is unlikely to be an effective tool for reducing that public health burden of 62 Lassa fever within West Africa. 63 65 Lassa virus is a zoonotic pathogen endemic to West Africa where it poses a significant 66 burden on human health (Buckley et al. 1970). Although only a relatively small proportion of 67 human cases result in severe symptoms and mortality, human infection is common, with 8-52% 68 of the human population within Sierra Leone seropositive (McCormick et al. 1987; Bausch et al. 69 2001; Dan-Nwafor et al. 2019), indicative of past...