Objectives: To assess whether black race and other cerebrovascular risk factors have a differential effect on first vs recurrent stroke events.Methods: Estimate the differences in the magnitude of the association of demographic (age, back race, sex) or stroke risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, cigarette smoking, atrial fibrillation, left ventricular hypertrophy, or heart disease) for first vs recurrent stroke from a longitudinal cohort study of 29,682 black or white participants aged 45 years and older.Results: Over an average 6.8 years follow-up, 301 of 2,993 participants with a previous stroke at baseline had a recurrent stroke, while 818 of 26,689 participants who were stroke-free at baseline had a first stroke. Among those stroke-free at baseline, there was an age-by-race interaction (p 5 0.0002), with a first stroke risk 2.70 (95% confidence interval: 1.86-3.91) times greater for black than white participants at age 45, but no racial disparity at age 85 (hazard ratio 5 0.91; 95% confidence interval: 0.70-1.18). In contrast, there was no evidence of a higher risk of recurrent stroke at any age for black participants (p . 0.05). The association of traditional stroke risk factors was generally similar for first and recurrent stroke.
Conclusion:The association of age and black race differs substantially on first vs recurrent stroke risk, with risk factors playing a similar role. Risk factors for first stroke have been well studied, 1 providing a framework for primary stroke prevention. Multivariable risk functions developed in the Framingham 2 and Cardiovascular Health Study 3 cohorts have identified age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, cigarette smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, atrial fibrillation, and heart disease as predictors of incident stroke in a stroke-free population. A limitation of those studies was their inability to address the role of race (black race specifically) as a risk factor for stroke; however, there are substantial differences in stroke incidence between black and white persons, with incident stroke in black persons approximately 3 times higher between the ages of 45 and 65 years, but with disparities attenuating by age 85. [4][5][6][7][8] While substantial data document the risk factors for first stroke, there are fewer data establishing the risk factors for recurrent stroke (that is, risk factors for a subsequent stroke in a population with a previous stroke). The